【TMGM Financial Recap】Oil Prices at Stake as Israel’s Vote Today Poses Major Political Test for Netanyahu

Israel elects its 26th Knesset today. Not since 1988 has a national vote taken place on schedule; this is also the first since the latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out in October 2023. Seeking another term, incumbent Prime Minister Netanyahu is 77. His first premiership began in 1996, and his cumulative time in office approaches two decades. For Israeli military personnel, ballots opened more than a week ago at around 850 polling stations covering operational positions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Mobile stations account for roughly a quarter of the total. During transport, ballot boxes remain locked under armed officer escort. Publication of fresh polls is barred under Israeli law from last Friday until voting closes. Tonight’s 22:00 close will be followed immediately by exit polls. 

52 Versus 50: Pre-Election Polls Put Both Blocs Well Below 61 Seats 

A two-to-six-seat opposition lead emerges from the last legally publishable pre-election surveys, still the most recent polling benchmark. Both KAN and Channel 12 reported 52 seats for the opposition bloc against 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc on 22 October. The split was 54 versus 50 in Channel 13’s survey and 56 versus 50 in another from Channel 12. Pollsters differ on the margin, but not the underlying assessment: a small opposition advantage gives neither camp a majority. 

Party projections give Eisenkot’s Yashar the largest tally, at 22 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud follows with 20, ahead of the 14 forecast for former Prime Minister Bennett’s “Unity” party. Around eight seats each are expected for three parties: Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power, Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and Golan’s Democrats. 

The parliamentary arithmetic requires 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats to establish a governing majority. Polling tallies of 52 and 50 both fall short. Potential partners have already been excluded by Eisenkot, who explicitly rejects ever joining Netanyahu in government and says “a rotation arrangement is also completely out of the question”. He would also keep Arab parties and ultra-Orthodox parties out of the cabinet. Those groups nevertheless hold most of the additional seats necessary to lift 52 to 61. 

Allies’ conditions present Netanyahu with his own obstacles. Rising support for the far-right Ben-Gvir points to at least eight seats for his party. For the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, participation in government is conditional on military service exemptions being enshrined in law. 

A combined projection of 14 to 16 seats makes the two Arab parties pivotal; Arabs comprise roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population. Even so, parts of the opposition bloc favour another election rather than working with them. Smaller parties add another variable. Several are close to the 3.25% electoral threshold, making their entry into parliament consequential for the final seat allocation. 

Statutory deadlines frame the effort to assemble a government. Publication of the official results starts a seven-day window for the president to award the first mandate. The nominee receives 28 days for talks, potentially followed by a 14-day extension. Failure brings another election closer. Britain’s The Guardian pointed to a separate factor: Netanyahu’s extensive coalition-building experience and ability to capitalise on political divisions. A result without a clear advantage may therefore still leave him able to negotiate another term. 

Pro- and Anti-Netanyahu Blocs Supplant the Left-Right Divide 

Limits on prime ministerial terms feature in Eisenkot’s programme, alongside political integrity and government accountability, captured in his slogan “a country without lies,”. Israeli politics now pits supporters of Netanyahu against his opponents, rather than following its traditional left-right division. Opposition to the incumbent does not eliminate internal differences: on security policy, former Prime Minister Bennett and former Defence Minister Lieberman diverge substantially from the centre-left. 

Two issues lead voters’ concerns. Israeli society has spent three years debating accountability for the security and intelligence failures of 7 October 2023. Exemptions from military service for the ultra-Orthodox became the other major concern after gaining prominence rapidly in the pre-election months. Their basis was a 1948 agreement reached by Ben-Gurion with the ultra-Orthodox community, exempting religious school students from service. That arrangement has moved to the forefront of politics as Israeli operations continue in Gaza and southern Lebanon and reservist manpower comes under strain. Despite the Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling that the exemptions had no legal basis, the government has continued applying them. Opposition election programmes include compulsory military service; Yashar also proposes prosecuting draft evaders. 

Economic questions have stayed outside the election debate, despite the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 4.5% Israeli growth in 2026, the strongest among advanced economies. Security presents a different picture: 58% of survey respondents consider the situation poor. With three years of warfare behind them, voters face a decision on the country’s direction. 

At 66, Eisenkot has served as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and has roots in a Moroccan Jewish immigrant family. Gaza claimed the lives of his son and two nephews. Winning the premiership would make him the first Israeli prime minister of Mizrahi background. 

Netanyahu Retains Caretaker Premiership if Government Formation Fails 

An unsuccessful attempt to form a government would keep Netanyahu in the caretaker premiership until the next election. The existing administration would retain its powers in the interim, with military decisions still within its authority. 

Two or three months may separate today’s vote from a new government taking office. Exit polls come tonight, followed by official results due by 4 November. The president then gets seven days to designate a candidate, before 28 days of negotiations begin. With United States midterm voting set for 3 November, the formation process overlaps the U.S. midterms throughout. 

Washington’s position is already on record. On 18 October, Trump praised Netanyahu as a “great wartime prime minister”; a 25 October post then directly urged Israeli voters to support Likud. Vice President Vance took a different stance, saying he would not intervene. 

The timetable for military action against Iran likewise falls after these political milestones. Claims of a planned pre-election strike were denied by Defence Minister Katz. Israeli media, for their part, reported military assessments that put the renewal of operations after both elections. 

Yesterday brought the first move in oil prices. It also saw senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye reach Tehran, the first contact of this kind since fighting began in February. Talks addressed shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz, among other subjects. International oil prices lost around 1.5% that day. Tonight’s exit polls will make the shortfall from 61 seats in each bloc the immediate focus. The further below that threshold they remain, the longer the caretaker government will hold office and the slower the retreat of oil’s conflict premium.