Below $80,000: Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast amid consolidation, Middle East tensions and looming tech earnings

• Bitcoin remains below $80,000 on Tuesday. The previous session failed to deliver a close above the 50-day EMA near $80,765.
• Monday brought modest inflows of $110.34 million into spot BTC ETFs. Last week, Strive acquired 6,182 BTC, while Strategy made no BTC purchases.
• For BTC’s next move, QCP Capital points to forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East as the likely key drivers.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains below $80,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The previous day’s session ended without a close above the key resistance zone.

Modest inflows reached US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Monday. Among corporate buyers, Strategy (MSTR) suspended Bitcoin purchases last week, whereas Strive (ASST) acquired 6,182 BTC. QCP Capital sees forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and Middle East developments as likely determinants of the Crypto King’s next direction.

$110.34 million inflow signals modest institutional support

A $110.34 million inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday gave institutional demand a mildly positive start to the week, according to SoSoValue. This followed last week’s net inflow of $301.2 million, which ended two consecutive weeks of outflows. Monday’s modest buying was insufficient to drive a recovery. BTC could rebound if inflows persist and gather strength over the rest of the week.

In a Monday post on X, Lookonchain reported that Strive had purchased 6,182 BTC last week, while Strategy bought none. After several weeks of purchases, Strategy’s decision to step back contrasts with Strive’s increased buying, signalling a shift in institutional accumulation. Continued purchases by Strive could absorb some selling pressure and help support BTC.

Bitcoin traders watch for the next catalyst

Forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and events in the Middle East are likely to matter more for Bitcoin’s next direction than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, QCP Capital said in its Monday report. The meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October.

Wednesday brings Q3 earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, with Amazon reporting on Thursday. QCP Capital said results supporting further substantial Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment could reduce concerns about hyperscaler valuations. A disappointing set of results, by contrast, could prolong the AI-led market sell-off already under way.

The analyst also added: “Oil is the second driver. The US cut staff at Middle East embassies over the weekend, and US President Donald Trump said a strike on Iran could come as early as Sunday before ruling it out,”

For Bitcoin this week, QCP Capital set out three possible scenarios. Its base case puts BTC in a $78,000 to $86,000 range, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving rates unchanged.

In the bullish scenario, earnings calm concerns over AI capital expenditure and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh moderates the December signal, driving yields down. BTC would regain the $80,000-$81,500 cost-basis band before advancing towards $86,000 and then $88,000-$90,000. 

The bearish scenario combines an escalation in the Middle East with either an unexpected rate increase or a press conference that locks in December. Under those conditions, 10-year US Treasury yields would return above 5%, while BTC would break below $78,000.

$79,918 Bitcoin technical outlook: Momentum loses strength

At $79,918 on Tuesday, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,727 and $76,338 respectively. These levels support a constructive medium-term outlook. The 50-day EMA at $80,765 nevertheless limits gains. Consolidation immediately below this dynamic resistance leaves the short-term bias neutral to mildly bearish.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 41 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, momentum readings remain subdued. They point to fading bullish pressure as buyers struggle to build on the earlier advance.

The 50-day EMA near $80,765 provides the first upside barrier. A daily close above it would clear a path towards horizontal resistance at $85,000, where selling supply seen previously is likely to return.

Initial downside support lies at the 100-day EMA of $77,727. Below that, the 200-day EMA around $76,338 forms a deeper structural floor. Losing this latter level would materially undermine the broader trend and leave BTC vulnerable to a sharper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)