Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE targets triangle breakout rally as whale activity sends mixed signals

• Over 2% higher on Friday, Pepe is recovering from the previous day's 5% pullback from an overhead resistance trendline.
• A broad decline in PEPE's exchange supply points to neutral-to-bullish signals, although on-chain data indicate mixed activity among whales.
• A 2% rise in futures open interest over 24 hours highlights PEPE's continued retail strength.

A 5% decline the previous day has left Pepe (PEPE) within a symmetrical triangle. Signs of recovery are emerging on Friday. Rising futures open interest reflects resilient retail interest, although the frog-themed meme coin is struggling to maintain its appeal among large-wallet investors. Strengthening momentum gives PEPE's technical outlook an upward bias, supporting the prospect of a rally on a triangle breakout.

Retail resilience balances mixed on-chain demand

Broader market uncertainty is weighing on whales, leaving Pepe's on-chain indicators mixed. Holders of over 1 billion PEPE tokens control 96.38% of circulating supply on Friday, compared with 96.4% on 1 September. By contrast, wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion PEPE continue to accumulate, increasing their share of circulating supply to 2.56% from 2.55% over the same period. 

Exchange supply has fallen from 18.75% to 17.8%, indicating reduced selling pressure on PEPE. The proportion of supply in profit, however, has climbed to 45.67%. This reflects a steady near-term recovery but also raises concerns over profit-taking. 

Firm buying pressure persists in Pepe futures on the retail side. CoinGlass data show a 2% increase in PEPE futures open interest over the last 24 hours, pointing to an accumulation of open positions while the spot price stalls. Over the same 24 hours, the funding rate has risen from -0.0133% to -0.0078%, suggesting reduced appetite for taking short positions.

PEPE Technical Analysis: Prospects for an Extended Triangle Breakout Rally

At around $0.00000450 at press time on Friday, Pepe has almost recouped the previous day's 5% loss. Above PEPE's price, a resistance trendline linking the highs of 22 September and Wednesday sits around $0.00000476. 

A symmetrical triangle is formed by this overhead resistance and an ascending support trendline linking the lows of 11 September and 8 October near $0.00000396. If a breakout above trendline resistance near $0.00000476 is confirmed, the rally could extend towards the 22 September peak of $0.00000536. Using the Fibonacci retracement from the 11 September low of $0.00000320 to the 22 September high of $0.00000536, the next major barriers are the 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels at $0.00000617 and $0.00000737, respectively.

The daily chart shows strengthening momentum. In positive territory, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is moving above its signal line. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 60, is crossing above the midline, pointing to further gains before entering overbought territory.

Support on a decline lies at the 50% retracement level of $0.00000414 and the 8 October low of $0.00000364.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)