Below $54.00: Silver Price Forecast as XAG/USD extends decline to fresh YTD low

$54.00 gives way as Silver falls further on Friday, extending the previous day’s steep losses.
A continuation of the two-month downtrend remains supported by bearish technical signals.
$58.00 could cap any recovery attempt as sellers return on rebounds.

$54.00 is under pressure from Silver (XAG/USD) bears. During Friday’s Asian session, the metal falls to its lowest since November 2025, with sellers seeking to drive prices further below that level. A second consecutive week of heavy losses remains on course. Technical signals also indicate that further declines remain the path of least resistance.

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Trading well beneath its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), XAG/USD retains a negative outlook. That view is reinforced by this week’s inability to establish a foothold above $58.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the May-July decline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator provides further bearish confirmation, remaining below zero with a latest reading of -0.34.

At 31.53, however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to oversold territory. Selling momentum still dominates, but the reading suggests it may be nearing exhaustion rather than signalling a fresh wave of impulsive selling. Waiting for a sustained break below $54.00 would therefore be prudent before positioning for a continuation of the decline seen over roughly the past two months.

The $55.50 horizontal zone presents the first resistance on a rebound. A break above it could allow XAG/USD to challenge $58.00, followed by the psychological $60.00 level, the $61.50-$61.55 area and the 23.6% Fibonacci level near $63.00. Only by overcoming these barriers can XAG/USD relieve the prevailing bearish pressure and create scope for a more durable recovery.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing the technical analysis in this article. Learn more.)

Daily chart: XAG/USD

Silver: frequently asked questions

What attracts investors to Silver?

Historically a store of value and medium of exchange, Silver remains an actively traded precious metal. Gold is more popular, but traders may choose Silver for its intrinsic value, to diversify an investment portfolio or as a potential hedge against high inflation. Exposure can take the form of physical coins and bars. Investors can also trade through instruments such as exchange-traded funds, which follow Silver’s price in international markets.

What drives changes in Silver prices?

A broad range of influences shapes Silver prices. Its safe-haven status can lift demand during geopolitical instability or concerns over a severe recession, although this effect is weaker than for Gold. Lower interest rates also tend to support Silver because it pays no yield. Pricing in US dollars means movements in the US Dollar (USD) affect the metal (XAG/USD): dollar strength tends to restrain prices, while dollar weakness is likely to lift them. Investment demand, mining supply and recycling rates are further drivers. Silver is also much more abundant than Gold.

What role does industrial demand play in Silver pricing?

With electrical conductivity among the highest of any metal, exceeding both Copper and Gold, Silver has extensive industrial applications, notably in electronics and solar energy. Rising demand can push prices higher; falling demand tends to weigh on them. Economic conditions in the US, China and India can also cause price fluctuations. Large industrial sectors in the US and, especially, China consume Silver in a range of processes. In India, consumer demand for Silver jewellery is another important influence on prices.

How closely does Silver track Gold prices?

Gold and Silver share similar safe-haven characteristics, so gains in Gold typically bring a corresponding rise in Silver. Their relative valuations may be assessed using the Gold/Silver ratio: the number of ounces of Silver equal in value to one ounce of Gold. A high ratio may be interpreted by some investors as a sign that Silver is undervalued or Gold overvalued. A low reading, by contrast, might indicate that Gold is undervalued compared with Silver.