$100 Stall for SOL: Solana Price Forecast Amid Weak Institutional Demand

• $100 remains intact for Solana on Monday. A 2% fall last week extended its losing streak to three weeks.
• Over $8 million flowed out of SOL-focused ETFs on Friday, taking weekly withdrawals above $17 million.
• Retail demand for Solana weakens as futures Open Interest falls to $6.18 billion from last week’s $6.34 billion.

$100 continues to hold for Solana (SOL) on Monday. The near-term bias remains bearish following three successive weeks of losses, with last week’s decline reaching 2%. Institutional selling continues to weigh on SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), producing a third weekly outflow of over $17 million. Falling Open Interest also points to softer retail demand. The bearish technical outlook leaves SOL’s long-term support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around $98, under pressure.

$17.30 million exits Solana ETFs as selling persists

Last week’s $17.30 million withdrawal marked the third consecutive week of outflows from Solana-focused ETFs, lifting the monthly total to $72.24 million. A further week of withdrawals could take the monthly figure above $1 million, making it the largest monthly outflow since June’s $786,580. ETF outflows generally indicate that institutional investors are selling shares, signalling weaker confidence in the underlying asset.

Demand is also fading in the retail futures market. According to CoinGlass, SOL futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $6.18 billion on Monday, down from $6.34 billion last week. The drop indicates a lower notional value of active contracts alongside a falling spot price and a potential wipeout of positions.

Overall, demand for the Layer-1 token remains subdued despite the Alpenglow upgrade last week. The upgrade replaced the old TowerBFT system with Votor, a new engine that cut transaction finality from roughly 12 seconds to a targeted 150 milliseconds.

$100 rebound in focus: SOL technical outlook

At press time on Monday, Solana is trading at $101.45, above the 200-day EMA at $98.27 but still constrained below the 50-day EMA at $105.99. Trading between these major averages points to a correction within a broader uptrend. An ascending support trendline around $86.67 adds support to that underlying structure.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 36, showing that momentum remains weak. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits slightly beneath its signal line in negative territory, suggesting that downward pressure persists.

Initial meaningful support lies at the 200-day EMA of $98.27. A confirmed breach could deepen the decline towards the rising trendline near $86.67. Should the pullback continue, stronger buying interest would be expected around that level.

For any advance, the first resistance level is the 50-day EMA near $105.99. Beyond it lies the more distant horizontal barrier at $122.94, the high recorded on 25 September.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)