20-day EMA: USD/JPY Price Forecast Highlights Attempt to Break Back Above

157.80 in sight as USD/JPY advances on Japanese Yen weakness.
Unchanged interest rates are expected from both the Fed and the BoJ this week.
A BoJ interest rate increase is expected at its December policy meeting.

The US Dollar (USD) is up 0.22% against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The pair trades around 157.80 during Tuesday’s European session. With caution prevailing ahead of Friday’s monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Yen continues to lag its peers.

Japanese Yen: Today’s Performance

Against the major currencies listed below, today’s percentage moves show the Japanese Yen (JPY) losing most ground to the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.13%	0.14%	0.19%	0.07%	0.01%	-0.17%	0.06%
EUR	-0.13%		0.00%	0.07%	-0.04%	-0.12%	-0.31%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.14%	-0.01%		0.06%	-0.07%	-0.12%	-0.31%	-0.07%
JPY	-0.19%	-0.07%	-0.06%		-0.13%	-0.19%	-0.37%	-0.15%
CAD	-0.07%	0.04%	0.07%	0.13%		-0.05%	-0.24%	-0.01%
AUD	-0.01%	0.12%	0.12%	0.19%	0.05%		-0.18%	0.05%
NZD	0.17%	0.31%	0.31%	0.37%	0.24%	0.18%		0.24%
CHF	-0.06%	0.07%	0.07%	0.15%	0.00%	-0.05%	-0.24%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the Japanese Yen on the left, for example, and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for JPY (base)/USD (quote).

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

December hike priced in as BoJ expected to hold on Friday, supporting firmer Yen

A cautious stance from Governor Kazuo Ueda underpins the assessment by Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) analysts that the Bank of Japan is "widely expected to keep rates on hold at 1.25% and assess September’s 25bps hike before tightening again." The analysts point to his earlier remarks: "in September, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that rapid rate hikes could unsettle asset prices, adding that it could take some time to confirm that 2% inflation is entrenched."

Market expectations for monetary policy have shifted in a more hawkish direction, according to BBH, which notes that "the swaps curve price in 75% odds of a 25bps BoJ rate hike to 1.50% at the December 18 meeting and nearly 75bps of tightening in the next twelve months."

Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be the key catalyst for USD/JPY ahead of the BoJ decision. An unchanged interest rate range of 3.75%-4.00% is almost certain, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors will scrutinise the Fed’s comments on inflation and the economic outlook.

At the time of writing, a 0.16% gain puts the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 102.20. The index measures the Greenback against six major currencies.

157.69 EMA Support: USD/JPY Technical Outlook

At 157.86 on the daily chart, USD/JPY remains above its 9-period exponential moving average (EMA) of 157.69. Support from this short-term trend measure preserves a mildly bullish near-term outlook. A Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 51 indicates neutral-to-positive momentum. Buyers therefore appear to hold a slight edge without the pair entering overbought territory.

The 9-period EMA at 157.69 provides the first downside support for the current advance. A break below it would be needed to indicate a deeper correction. The latest dataset identifies no nearby technical resistance, leaving the bias towards further gains while the pair stays above this moving average. Fresh highs, however, would likely prompt closer monitoring of momentum for signs that the advance is tiring.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Release

Fed Rate Decision

At eight scheduled meetings each year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reviews monetary policy and decides on interest rates. Its dual mandate is to maintain full employment and keep inflation at 2%. Interest rates are its principal policy tool, covering both lending to banks and lending between banks. A rate increase typically supports the US Dollar (USD) by drawing in more foreign capital. A rate cut, by contrast, tends to weaken the USD as capital moves to countries with higher returns. When rates remain unchanged, the focus shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and its tone: hawkish signals point to expectations of higher future interest rates, while dovish signals indicate expectations of lower future rates.

View further details.

Next scheduled release: Wed 28 Oct 2026 18:00

Release frequency: No fixed schedule

Market consensus: 4%

Prior reading: 4%

Data source: Federal Reserve