Above mid-$98.00s: WTI Price Forecast Signals Further Upside as Bullish Setup Supports Advance

Two days of sizeable price swings give way to renewed buying in WTI.
Unresolved geopolitical risks support crude prices and give bulls an advantage.
$100.00 remains within reach as the technical structure supports further upside.

$98.70 is the zone reached by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) during Thursday’s Asian session. Fresh buying lifts the US crude oil benchmark, keeping it close to the high recorded earlier this week, its strongest level since 15 September.

The risk of a further deterioration in Middle East tensions continues to raise concerns about energy supply disruptions, providing a key source of support for crude. In the latest incident, a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in the Eastern Province killed two expatriates and injured two others.

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Plans for a brief but intensive military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections have been drawn up by the US and Israel, The New York Times reported. Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that the country was prepared to defend itself. He also said Tehran was willing to give diplomacy with the US another opportunity.

On the 4-hour chart, crude remains comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The rebound on Tuesday from around $95.00, a former resistance level now acting as support, also indicates that the near-term uptrend is intact. This is despite recent volatility driven by conflicting signals on US-Iran peace talks.

At around 57, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to a neutral-to-positive bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, however, stays below zero, suggesting measured rather than forceful upward momentum. Even so, the wider technical structure remains constructive, indicating that a corrective decline could meet support at $95.00.

Around $92.76, the 100-period SMA provides the structural floor. Within the prevailing bullish backdrop, buyers would be expected to regain control there if prices retreat more deeply. A breach of this key support would undermine the bullish structure. Staying above it, by contrast, leaves scope for another test of the recent psychological $100 area and potentially higher levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

4-hour WTI chart

WTI Oil: Key Questions

WTI Oil: What does the benchmark represent?

West Texas Intermediate, abbreviated to WTI, is a crude oil grade traded internationally. Alongside Brent and Dubai Crude, it is one of the three major types. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. WTI is regarded as a high-quality oil that is straightforward to refine. Produced in the United States, it is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. As an oil market benchmark, its price is regularly cited by the media.

WTI Oil prices: The main drivers

Supply and demand underpin WTI Oil prices, as they do those of other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions caused by political instability, wars or sanctions can also affect prices. Another major influence is policy set by OPEC, a group of leading oil-producing countries. Because oil trading is predominantly denominated in US Dollars, the currency’s value also matters: a weaker US Dollar can make WTI Crude Oil more affordable, while a stronger currency can have the opposite effect.

WTI Oil inventories: How do stock changes affect prices?

Weekly inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence WTI Oil prices by showing shifts in supply and demand. Falling stocks may signal stronger demand and lift oil prices. Rising stocks, in contrast, can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of results generally align: 75% of the time, they differ by no more than 1%. As the EIA is a government agency, its figures are regarded as more reliable.

12 OPEC producers: Their influence on WTI Oil prices

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing countries in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for members. These decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can constrain supply and lift prices, whereas increased production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping brings in ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most prominent.