US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY flirts with 23.6% Fibo. support below 102.00

DXY extends the previous day’s sharp retracement slide from April 2025 highs.
Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties could support the safe-haven USD.
The technical setup warrants some caution before placing fresh bearish bets.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts heavy selling on Thursday, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the 103.00 neighborhood, or a fresh high since April 2025. The index sticks to its intraday losses through the first half of the European session and currently trades just below the 102.00 mark, down over 0.50% for the day.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Despite Wednesday's hot US consumer inflation figures, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates steady at its October policy meeting. Furthermore, a Bloomberg report of China's possible use of a backdoor channel to buy US bonds draws attention, triggering a steep decline in US Treasury yields. This prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) profit-taking on Thursday.

Meanwhile, traders are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid oil-driven inflation risks. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz could lend support to the safe-haven buck and help limit the downside for the DXY.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as the index holds above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and most Fibonacci retracement levels, while trading just over the 23.6% retracement at 101.92. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 44, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning lower in negative territory.

Momentum indicators together suggest that upside attempts could be gradual rather than impulsive. Meanwhile, a break below the 23.6% Fibo. support at 101.92 could expose the 100-period SMA at 101.79, ahead of a Fibonacci cluster between 101.28 and 100.77. On the topside, the next significant hurdle is the recent cycle high at 102.95, where a clear break would open the way for a stronger bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

DXY 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.52%	-0.49%	-0.30%	-0.23%	0.61%	-0.32%	-0.60%
EUR	0.52%		0.02%	0.21%	0.27%	1.17%	0.20%	-0.09%
GBP	0.49%	-0.02%		0.19%	0.23%	1.10%	0.16%	-0.12%
JPY	0.30%	-0.21%	-0.19%		0.04%	0.93%	-0.04%	-0.31%
CAD	0.23%	-0.27%	-0.23%	-0.04%		0.87%	-0.06%	-0.35%
AUD	-0.61%	-1.17%	-1.10%	-0.93%	-0.87%		-0.93%	-1.22%
NZD	0.32%	-0.20%	-0.16%	0.04%	0.06%	0.93%		-0.30%
CHF	0.60%	0.09%	0.12%	0.31%	0.35%	1.22%	0.30%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).