菲律宾比索：能源冲击风险与菲律宾中央银行立场 – 星展银行

菲律宾比索：能源冲击风险与菲律宾中央银行立场 – 星展银行

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星展集团研究部经济学家拉迪卡·拉奥（Radhika Rao）讨论了菲律宾因应中东供应风险宣布国家能源紧急状态，可能对通胀、经济增长及菲律宾比索（PHP）产生的影响。

星展银行集团研究经济学家Radhika Rao讨论了菲律宾因应中东供应风险宣布国家能源紧急状态可能对通胀、增长和菲律宾比索（PHP）产生的影响。她指出，岸上市场承压，比索创纪录疲软，股票表现不佳，并预计菲律宾中央银行Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas（BSP）将维持延长暂停，星展银行基线预测中此前预计的降息将被取消。

能源紧急状态影响比索前景

“在中东冲突之前，官方增长预测已被下调至2026年4.6%和2027年5.9%（此前分别为5.4%和6.3%），因为贪腐相关调查和公共支出放缓尽管基准利率已下调225bp，但仍抑制了前景。”

“菲律宾于周三宣布国家能源紧急状态，以应对中东冲突及其导致的供应中断风险。”

“岸上金融市场本月已承压，比索（贬值至创纪录低点）和股票市场在区域内表现落后，按月迄今计算。”

“BSP在此环境下将谨慎进一步降息，倾向于维持延长暂停。”

“我们在基线预测中取消了最后一次降息。”

（本文借助人工智能工具撰写，并由编辑审核。）

Acuity Trading is a London-based fintech company founded in 2013 that specializes in AI-powered alternative data and sentiment analysis for trading and investments. They revolutionized the online trading experience by introducing visual news and sentiment tools, and today they continue to lead the fintech market with alpha-generating alternative data and highly engaging trading tools using the latest AI research and technology.

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