Gulf supply disruption fears push WTI Oil towards $99

  • A gain of nearly 1% takes WTI Oil towards $99.00 on Wednesday as its uptrend resumes.
  • Supply disruption concerns have intensified amid more attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats to Saudi Arabian oilfields.
  • With their positions still far apart, the US and Iran continue to make no progress in attempts to negotiate.

A rise of about 1% has taken US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil to a session high just a few cents short of $99.00 on Wednesday. Crude has recovered its earlier losses as mounting attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the continuing threat to Saudi Arabian oilfields fuel concerns over supply disruptions.

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According to an announcement on Tuesday by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), two tankers caught fire after striking sea mines in the southern Strait of Hormuz. The vessels had been attempting to pass through the waterway along a route not authorised by Tehran.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias have claimed responsibility for attacks on Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu. Saudi Arabia uses the Red Sea port to bypass the troubled Hormuz corridor.

US-Iran peace efforts fail to secure an agreement

Efforts to reach a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran have yet to succeed. Seeking to mediate between the rivals and avert another round of fighting, a senior Pakistani army official arrived in Tehran on Tuesday. Markets welcomed the development, with crude prices retreating sharply during Tuesday’s US trading session.

Hopes for a rapid peace agreement were dampened by American officials on Wednesday, however. Speaking to US media, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said securing a peace deal with Iran was extremely difficult. He also said economic pressure on the Islamic Republic would continue until Tehran continues targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to Iranian media, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Washington must accept Iran’s conditions before the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. With the two sides caught in this cycle, the conflict is entering its eighth month without a clear end in sight.

WTI Oil: Key Facts

Traded on international markets, WTI is a variety of crude oil. Its name stands for West Texas Intermediate, and it is one of three major varieties alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity and sulphur content earn it the descriptions “light” and “sweet”, respectively. WTI is regarded as a high-quality oil that can be readily refined. Produced in the United States, it is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. As an oil market benchmark, its price is regularly cited in the media.

Supply and demand underpin the price of WTI oil, as they do for all assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions arising from political instability, war or sanctions can also affect prices. Another important influence is the policy of OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries. Because oil is traded mainly in US Dollars, the currency’s value also affects WTI crude prices: a weaker US Dollar can make oil more affordable, while a stronger one can have the opposite effect.

WTI oil prices are affected by the weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA). Inventory movements capture shifts in supply and demand. A fall in stocks can signal stronger demand and lift oil prices; rising stocks can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar, coming within 1% of one another 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its figures are regarded as more reliable.

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing nations of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently affect WTI oil prices. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift prices, whereas an increase in OPEC production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping includes ten additional countries outside OPEC, with Russia the most prominent.