AUD/USD Price Forecast: Can bulls break above the 100-day SMA barrier near 0.7035?

• Can AUD/USD overcome the key 100-day SMA resistance as its struggle persists?
• USD strength, underpinned by geopolitical risks and hawkish Fed expectations, limits gains in spot prices.
• With the FOMC meeting in focus, expectations of an RBA rate hike provide support to the Aussie.

Caution ahead of this week's major central bank event and economic releases appears to be keeping traders from taking sizeable directional positions in AUD/USD. The pair has eased slightly from the fresh one-month high reached earlier on Monday after failing to secure a decisive break above the pivotal 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. Nevertheless, spot prices remain above the psychological 0.7000 level during the first half of the European session.

Wednesday brings Australian consumer inflation data, followed by the decision from the two-day FOMC meeting. Attention will then turn to Thursday's Advance US Q3 GDP report and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for indications of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy trajectory. That outlook will shape the US Dollar's (USD) direction and offer a meaningful catalyst for AUD/USD.

For now, the safe-haven Greenback may continue to draw support from lingering geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of another US interest rate increase by year-end, as volatile oil prices pose inflation risks. At the same time, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) limit the scope for AUD/USD losses. This calls for caution before concluding that spot prices have peaked.

Technically, overhead resistance continues to limit what appears to be an early recovery in AUD/USD. The pair remains capped below the 100-day SMA at 0.7033, while holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent decline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved into slightly positive territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 52.9, has entered the upper half of its range. Together, these momentum signals point to a tentative rebound that has yet to overcome resistance.

A move through the 100-day SMA at 0.7033 would bring the 50.0% retracement at 0.7064 into focus. Beyond that, resistance lies at the 61.8% retracement at 0.7105, followed by the 78.6% level at 0.7162 and, ultimately, the full-recovery barrier at 0.7236. Should prices retreat, the first support is the 38.2% retracement at 0.7024. The next levels to watch are the 23.6% retracement at 0.6974 and the recent cycle low around 0.6893.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart: can resistance give way?