Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast: Can BTC sustain momentum toward $84K as XAU leaps above $4,100?

• A determined defence of support near $80,000 by bulls has helped Bitcoin move towards $83,000 following a macro-driven correction.
• Gold edges above $4,100, although major moving averages overhead appear to constrain its recovery prospects.
• Bets on unchanged Fed interest rates next week stand at 85%, despite continuing macroeconomic uncertainty.

An apparent increase in buyers’ appetite for risk is supporting a modest rise in Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday. Support near $80,000 was recently tested and confirmed by the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, as investors rebalanced portfolios against a backdrop of higher inflation in the United States (US) and continuing geopolitical pressures. 

A small gain on the day is keeping Gold (XAU/USD) above $4,100. However, the wider trend remains bearish, and structural levels appear to restrict the scope for a recovery.

Will the Fed hold rates steady at its October decision?

Expectations of an unchanged policy stance dominate pricing ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range on 28 October. By contrast, the odds of a 25-basis-point increase to the 4.00-4.25% range are roughly 15%.

Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that US inflation remains sticky, providing the backdrop to strong expectations for a rate pause. For December, however, interest rate traders are assigning a higher probability to a hike.

In an emailed analysis report, Crypto Finance said: “Markets currently assign approximately an 85% probability to unchanged rates at the October 28 meeting, although expectations for another rate hike in December remain elevated,”

Risk appetite across cryptocurrencies remains shaped by the macroeconomic backdrop, as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index. Its Wednesday reading of 63 places it in Greed territory, compared with 55 a day earlier. Although sentiment remains elevated, the Fed’s persistently restrictive monetary policy continues to temper conviction in an aggressive move higher.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Can critical support sustain the bullish bias?

At $83,564, Bitcoin retains a constructive bullish bias, trading comfortably above its short-, medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). An underlying demand zone below the current price is reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $80,795 and the SuperTrend baseline around $79,664. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, signalling that upward momentum may be fading.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) broadly neutral near 55, the current phase appears to be consolidation within a wider uptrend, rather than a rally that has fully run out of steam.

On a pullback, buyers could seek to regain control at immediate support from the 50-day EMA at $80,794, followed by the SuperTrend line at $79,664. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $77,352 and the 200-day EMA at $76,177 provide structural support. These levels should help preserve the broader bullish structure, provided they hold.

Gold technical outlook: Can XAU retain support with upside constrained?

Bulls are attempting to build a recovery above $4,100 support, with Gold trading at $4,134. While this demand zone is encouraging investors to consider re-entering, the metal remains under near-term pressure below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The nearest of these, at $4,241, reinforces the bearish bias, even though the MACD is mildly positive above zero. At around 43, the RSI remains neutral, pointing to muted momentum rather than capitulation.

Recovery attempts face their first resistance at the 50-day EMA near $4,241. Beyond that lie the 200-day EMA at $4,291 and the 100-day EMA at $4,294, while the SuperTrend line at $4,327 sets a broader ceiling. With no structural support levels on the daily chart, traders must instead look to psychological demand zones at $4,100 and $4,000. A sustained move back below this support range would likely pave the way for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)