Ripple and Stellar outlook: Why are XRP and XLM recoveries stalling below EMAs?

• Recovery prospects for XRP remain constrained beneath key EMAs, with the token trading below $1.36 on Thursday.
• After a modest recovery over the previous two days, XLM surrenders part of those gains and falls below $0.183.
• Both altcoins face limited scope for recovery as mixed derivatives signals combine with fading momentum and heating market conditions.

Cautious sentiment continues to weigh on Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) on Thursday, leaving both unable to maintain their recent recovery efforts. With XRP trading below $1.36 and XLM falling below $0.183, mixed derivatives readings, softer momentum indicators and heating market conditions point to continued market caution.

Are mixed derivatives signals limiting XRP and XLM?

Conditions in Ripple and Stellar derivatives appear to be deteriorating. On Thursday, CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratios stand at 0.67 for XRP and 0.93 for XLM, approaching their lowest readings in over a month. Readings below one reflect bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for a decline in asset prices.

Funding rates, however, offer a contrasting signal. XRP’s rate turned positive on Monday and XLM’s on Wednesday, reaching 0.0084% and 0.0072%, respectively, on Thursday. These positive readings mean long-position holders are paying short-position holders, pointing to a mildly bullish outlook.

What points to a bearish bias in on-chain data?

A bearish outlook for both altcoins emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and heating conditions are evident in XRP’s spot and futures markets, while selling pressure dominates its futures market. Together, these signals suggest a cautious, bearish bias among Ripple traders.

Stellar traders also show a negative outlook: although conditions in XLM’s spot market are healing, sellers retain the upper hand in futures.

XRP technical outlook: Can buyers overcome key EMAs?

A tight overhead resistance band keeps XRP’s near-term outlook bearish as it trades at $1.352 on Thursday. The token remains below its medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 200-day EMA at $1.374 and the 50-day EMA at $1.375 limiting the upside, even as the price stabilises above the 100-day EMA at $1.337.

At 45, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging lower, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative. Together, these readings suggest rebounds could remain restricted unless buyers lift the price back above the closely grouped EMAs.

The first upside supply zone comprises the 200-day EMA at $1.374 and, just above it, the 50-day EMA at $1.375. A sustained move through this band would clear a path towards the horizontal barrier at $1.540, followed by the higher resistance near $1.900.

Around current levels, the 100-day EMA at $1.337 provides initial downside support, with the horizontal floor near $1.300 offering an additional cushion. A daily close beneath $1.300 would strengthen the broader bearish bias and leave the token vulnerable to further losses.

XLM technical outlook: What does fading momentum signal?

Pressure persists on XLM, which trades at $0.182 on Thursday beneath a cluster of EMAs. The 100-day EMA around $0.190, the 200-day EMA near $0.191 and the 50-day EMA close to $0.192 continue to constrain the broader outlook following the recent rejection at higher levels.

Buying interest looks muted, with the RSI near 41. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below zero, suggesting that downward momentum persists, though its intensity is easing.

Any recovery would first encounter the EMA band at roughly $0.190 to $0.192. Above this lies the previously breached rising trendline, now offering resistance around $0.195, followed by a more substantial hurdle at the horizontal barrier near $0.234.

Immediate downside support is at $0.173. Further below, the floor near $0.153 marks an area where buyers previously intervened to halt declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)