British Pound holds near six-month high as Hormuz hopes lift sentiment

• GBP/USD consolidates near six-month high as risk appetite improves.
• Pakistan-Iran talks raise hopes for broader Hormuz de-escalation.
• US data and Warsh speech could reset Fed expectations.

The Pound Sterling consolidates near a six-month high of 1.3675 as Middle East headlines improve risk appetite, while investors await the release of crucial US economic data and the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3638, virtually unchanged.

GBP/USD steadies as traders await US data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

Geopolitics are in the driver’s seat once more as the Pakistani Army Chief Munir travelled to Iran, where he proposed the lifting of the US Navy blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting attacks from proxy allies, according to sources cited by Al Arabiya and Al Hadath. Regarding this, an Iranian official said that the visit was fruitful and that its results will soon become apparent.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, remains steady at 98.93, posting minimal losses of 0.04%.

Data in the US showed that Building Permits in July rose below estimates of 5% but surpassed June’s contraction of -2.6%, increasing by 4.3% MoM to 1.433 million, above the previous 1.374 million. Recently, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average came at 11.75K, exceeding the previous print of 9.5K.

Other data showed that the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence missed estimates of 90.2, coming at 89.4. The report noted that households' views of current business conditions improved modestly in August, while they see an improvement in the jobs market. 

Aside from this, Boston Fed Susan Collins was hawkish, stating that inflation is still too high and that she is concerned about price stability. She recognised that the labour market is consistent with full employment, and that the economy is growing at a near-trend pace.

In the UK, Prime Minister Burnham is expected to meet with US President Donald Trump at the September UN General Assembly, as revealed by the Financial Times (FT).

The GBP/USD capped its losses as money markets continued to price in at least one rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) towards the end of the year, according to Prime Terminal data. Investors had priced a full rate increase towards the December 17 meeting.

Ahead, the US economic docket will feature growth, inflation, and jobs data, alongside a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. In the UK, the schedule would remain absent, though traders are closely watching developments ahead of the upcoming October budget, the first under Burnham’s administration.

GBO/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3640, keeping a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the cluster of simple moving averages around 1.3404 and reclaimed former trend-line barriers now acting as support near 1.3491 and 1.3398. The pair is also trading above an upward-sloping support line broken higher around 1.3625, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 69.5 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum remains strong but increasingly stretched.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the horizontal barrier at 1.3676; a decisive break above this ceiling would open the path for further gains within the broader uptrend. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the rising trend-line region around 1.3625, with the former resistance zone near 1.3491 and the simple moving average cluster around 1.3404–1.3390 providing a deeper demand area if a corrective pullback unfolds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)