ING’s commodities team highlights that Aluminium prices rallied toward $3,500/t on the LME as Middle East supply risks escalated. Damage at Emirates Global Aluminium and potential disruption at Aluminium Bahrain threaten around 3.2Mt of annual capacity. With prior curtailments in the Gulf and Aluminium on track for a 10% monthly gain, the market appears increasingly constrained.

Regional disruptions support Aluminium prices

"Aluminium prices rallied on Monday, briefly nearing $3,500/t on the LME, as Middle East supply risks escalated."

"Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said it sustained significant damage at its Abu Dhabi smelter, while Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is assessing the impact at its facility, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the sites were targeted in retaliation for US‑Israeli strikes."

"Together, the two smelters account for around 3.2Mt of annual capacity, and any prolonged outage would further tighten an already constrained market, where restarting smelters is costly, complex and time-consuming."

"The escalation comes on top of already tightening supply conditions across the Gulf."

"Recent curtailments at Alba and reduced operations at Qatalum have already affected around 560kt of annual capacity, equivalent to roughly 8-9% of regional supply."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)