Silver Price Forecast: Easing safe-haven demand pushes XAG/USD below $54.00

• With immediate military strikes against Iran ruled out by US President Donald Trump, silver prices come under pressure.
• Geopolitical concerns persist amid the prospect of post-election strikes, the risk of Iranian retaliation and continued Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia.
• A 90.6% probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October is priced into markets.

At around $53.70 per troy ounce in Asian trading, silver (XAG/USD) is retreating despite opening with a gap higher. Demand for safe-haven assets has eased, weighing on silver after US President Donald Trump ruled out immediate military action against Iran. In comments to Al Jazeera, Trump said, “There will not be a strike today.” Nevertheless, investors remain concerned that strikes could resume after this week’s Israeli elections and next week’s US midterm elections. Reports suggest Iran is ready to retaliate by targeting Israel and the UAE.

Tensions also remain high across the Arabian Peninsula. According to Reuters, Yemen’s Houthis said on Sunday that they would continue targeting Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. Their statement came only hours after Saudi officials announced the resumption of flight operations. The weekend brought an escalation in hostilities: the Houthis claimed attacks on the airport and Saudi oil facilities on Saturday, while Saudi Arabia said it intercepted further incoming missiles and drones on Sunday as it restored partial airport operations.

Global energy prices continue to rise as the wider Middle East conflict fuels inflation concerns and strengthens expectations of higher interest rates. Such rate expectations generally weigh on assets that offer no yield, including silver and other precious metals.

Attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming policy decision. Expectations widely favour unchanged interest rates, with a possible increase to follow in December. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the market-implied probability of a pause at the October 27–28 policy meeting at 90.6%, while the likelihood of a December increase stands at 79.7%.

Gold approaches key support as CTA selling weighs

The scale of recent systematic selling pressure on gold was highlighted by TD Securities strategists, who said, "CTAs have been heavy sellers of gold, with prices now reaching key support levels," as the metal approaches important support.