US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 199K last week

Initial Jobless Claims went up to 199K vs. the previous week.
Continuing Jobless Claims dropped to 1.710M.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 199K for the week ending October 10. The latest print came in a tad below initial estimates (200K) and was higher than the previous week’s 198K (revised from 197K).

Additionally, the 4-week moving average went up by 0.25K to 198.50K vs. the previous week’s revised prints (198.25K).

Análisis de TMGM: noticias de mercados financieros, calendario económico e información del mercado

The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims shrunk by 4K to 1.710M for the week ending October 3.

Market reaction

The Greenback fades Wednesday’s advance, motivating the US Dollar Index (DXY) to trade with modest losses in the vicinity of the 102.00 zone, briefly slipping back to multi-day lows, just to recover some ground afterwards.

Employment FAQs

How do employment levels affect currencies?

Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

Why is wage growth important?

The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

How much do central banks care about employment?

The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

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