TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 14 September 2026

Morning Snapshot

• A Reuters poll showed 86 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, marking a sharp shift from the previous poll that had favored a hold.
• U.S. rate-hike expectations strengthened after recent inflation data, with market pricing cited at about 87% for a quarter-point move and the U.S. Dollar Index rising toward 99.50.
• Oil prices jumped as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, vessel incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline raised fears over global supply routes.
• Brent traded above $104 and in some reports above $107 per barrel, while WTI rose to around $99.40-$99.50, with the 7 million barrel-per-day Saudi pipeline shutdown seen putting up to 4% of global oil supply at risk.
• ECB officials signaled continued policy vigilance, with Christine Lagarde calling the energy shock longer-lasting and Isabel Schnabel, Peter Kazimir and Gediminas Simkus warning that energy prices remain a concern and action at upcoming meetings cannot be ruled out.
• The Bank of Japan’s policy decision moved into focus, with markets fully pricing a 25-basis-point rate increase this week and the yen remaining close to seven-month highs after a 4% rally over the previous two weeks.
• U.S. equity futures fell at the start of the week, with Dow Jones futures down 0.17%, S&P 500 futures down 0.64% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.46%.
• Gold started the week lower as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, while broader markets adjusted to firmer U.S. policy expectations.
• Bitcoin traded near $77,884 alongside gains in Ethereum and XRP ahead of a U.S. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.
• The British pound traded firmer at the start of a data-heavy week in the United Kingdom ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement.

Market Developments

U.S. Equities

U.S. equity futures moved lower, with Dow Jones futures down 0.17% near 52,500, S&P 500 futures down 0.64% around 7,610 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.46% near 28,960.

Foreign Exchange

The U.S. Dollar Index rose for a third straight day and traded around 99.30-99.50 as markets priced in stronger odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase, while EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1585, USD/CHF traded around 0.8180 and the yen stayed close to seven-month highs after a 4% rally over the previous two weeks.

Commodities

Brent gained about 2.49% to around $104.20 and in other reports moved above $107 per barrel, while WTI rose nearly 3% to just above $99.50 after rebounding toward four-month highs; gold opened the week lower ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin edged higher to around $77,884, while Ethereum held near $2,521 and XRP near $1.38 ahead of a U.S. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Expectations Firm Ahead of September Decision

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase hardened ahead of the September 16 decision. A Reuters poll conducted on September 9 found that 86 of 101 economists expect a 25 basis point increase to 3.75%-4.00%, a marked change from the previous survey, when 65 of 93 economists had expected the Fed to hold rates steady.

Other reporting during the session pointed to markets pricing roughly an 87% probability of a quarter-point move. Deutsche Bank said its economists also expect a 25 basis point increase this week and now forecast 75 basis points of additional tightening over the next seven months, including an extra hike in March.

Recent U.S. inflation data remained central to the shift in expectations. Deutsche Bank said core CPI rose 0.29% in August, up from 0.22% in July and slightly above expectations, while hawkish elements in the producer-price report led its economists to estimate August core PCE at 0.27%. The bank also said it expects August retail sales to rebound 0.9% month on month after July’s 0.6% decline, with ex-auto sales seen up 0.6% and control-group sales up 0.3%.

ECB Officials Flag Persistent Energy Shock and Keep Policy Options Open

European Central Bank officials signaled that energy prices remain a major policy concern after last week’s move. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the current energy shock is longer-lasting, adding that the conflict is continuing and that the ECB expects volatility and pressure on energy prices to continue even as higher prices also pose a risk to growth.

Lagarde said inflation in the euro area stands at 3.3% and reiterated that the ECB’s task is to maintain price stability across the entire currency bloc. She also said the rise in long-term rates is linked to public finances, particularly in the United States, and to the funding needs of economic actors, especially for artificial intelligence.

Other ECB policymakers reinforced the message. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said recent energy-price developments have been quite concerning. Peter Kazimir said he is increasingly concerned about gas and power prices and that all options will be considered for the next policy decision. Gediminas Simkus said action at any upcoming meeting cannot be excluded.

Bank of Japan Decision Looms as Markets Price a Quarter-Point Increase

Attention also turned to the Bank of Japan, with markets fully pricing a 25 basis point rate increase this week and some reporting pointing to the possibility of another move in December. The yen remained close to seven-month highs after rallying 4% over the previous two weeks, even as it trimmed some gains against the U.S. dollar on Monday.

The upcoming BoJ decision is landing alongside the Federal Reserve meeting, keeping global central-bank policy in focus across currency markets. Reporting on EUR/JPY also highlighted that the European Central Bank’s policy outlook remains uncertain as officials weigh the inflation risks from higher energy prices.

Bank of England Week Begins With Sterling Firmer Ahead of Policy Decision

The British pound traded higher against most major peers at the start of a data-heavy week in the United Kingdom ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. Separate reporting said sterling drew support from strong U.K. GDP and industrial production data.

The euro remained under pressure against the pound at the start of the week, reflecting both the stronger U.K. data backdrop and broader pressure on the single currency from elevated oil prices and risk-off market conditions.

Geopolitics, Energy & Commodities

Saudi Pipeline Shutdown and Strait of Hormuz Risks Lift Oil Prices

Oil prices rose sharply after a fresh escalation in Middle East tensions raised concerns over key supply routes. Brent traded around $104.20 in one report, up 2.49% on the day, while other reporting said Brent moved above $107 per barrel after new strikes on Saudi Arabia, attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. WTI climbed nearly 3% to slightly above $99.50, after rebounding toward four-month highs around $99.40.

The East-West pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels per day, is a critical export route that allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure was described as putting up to 4% of global oil supply at risk. Additional concern centered on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where risks linked to the Houthis added to fears over another important transit route.

A planned Gulf-Iran meeting in Oman was postponed, adding to uncertainty over the timeline for de-escalation. ING also said the International Energy Agency made further aggressive cuts to its oil-demand forecasts, now projecting global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day year on year this year, 940,000 barrels per day lower than its previous forecast, before recovering by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027. ING added that middle-distillate markets remained extremely tight, with the ICE gasoil crack around a record $84 per barrel and U.S. diesel cracks above $110 per barrel.

Iran Reports Commercial Vessel Strike in Strait of Hormuz

Iranian state media said an Iranian commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, killing one person, in an incident reported by CNN amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran over the strategic waterway.

The report added to market concern over security in one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, where vessel attacks and broader regional conflict have already intensified scrutiny of oil transit risks.

Gold Opens Lower Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting

Gold started the week on a weaker footing as markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting beginning Tuesday. The metal came under pressure as expectations for a U.S. rate increase dominated broader market sentiment.

Regulation & Digital Assets

Cryptocurrencies Edge Higher Ahead of U.S. Senate Vote on CLARITY Act

Bitcoin traded near $77,884 on Monday as the broader cryptocurrency market moved higher ahead of a U.S. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act. Ethereum held near $2,521 and XRP near $1.38.

The move put regulatory developments back in focus for digital-asset markets as investors awaited the Senate vote on the legislation.

Upcoming Key Events

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision — September 16: The Federal Reserve is due to announce its policy decision, with economists in a Reuters poll largely expecting a 25 basis point increase to 3.75%-4.00%.
• Bank of Japan Policy Decision — This week: Markets are fully pricing a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase this week, with reporting also pointing to the possibility of another move in December.
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Announcement — This week: The Bank of England’s policy announcement is due during a data-heavy week for the United Kingdom.
• U.S. Senate Vote on the CLARITY Act — null: The Senate is due to vote on the CLARITY Act, a key regulatory event for cryptocurrency markets.
• U.S. August Retail Sales — Wednesday: August retail sales are scheduled for release, with Deutsche Bank economists expecting a 0.9% month-on-month rebound after July’s 0.6% decline.