Bitcoin Price Forecast: Geopolitical tensions curb risk appetite as BTC stalls near $80,000

• Following three consecutive weeks of correction, Bitcoin trades near $80,500 on Monday.
• Last week’s $301 million in net inflows into US-listed spot ETFs ended two successive weeks of outflows.
• Oil prices continue to climb as geopolitical tensions intensify in the Middle East, fuelling inflation worries and curbing appetite for risk.

Net inflows into spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) reached $301.2 million last week, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows and signalling a tentative revival in institutional demand. Bitcoin (BTC), however, trades near $80,500 at the time of writing on Monday, having extended its correction into a third successive week.

Pressure on the Crypto King persists as higher crude oil prices and intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heighten inflation worries and restrain risk appetite.

Institutional demand begins to recover

Despite the retreat in prices, last week brought tentative grounds for optimism over institutional demand. CoinGlass data showed net inflows of $301.2 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs, ending a run of two weeks of outflows. The improvement failed to halt BTC’s decline: the price fell over 2% last week, completing three consecutive weeks of correction since early October. Should inflows persist and strengthen this week, they could soften the continuing price slide.

BTC comes under pressure from geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices

Supply concerns linked to attacks in Saudi Arabia and tensions involving Iran have driven crude oil to its highest level since 15 September. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $103.28 per barrel on Friday. 

On Sunday, in the latest development, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis pledged to continue attacks on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. 

With US-Iran negotiations stalled, the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, exerting additional upward pressure on oil prices. If energy costs stay high, they could intensify inflation worries, weaken appetite for risk and limit BTC’s potential gains.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC displays signs of weakness

Last week’s 2.39% correction left the Crypto King with a third consecutive weekly loss since early October. On Monday, it trades near $80,400.

A further correction could take BTC towards $78,661, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. This level broadly coincides with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,817.

On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 54 and heading down towards the neutral 50 mark, signalling a cooling in bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, meanwhile, is still positive, but its bars are diminishing. The broader upward momentum therefore remains intact, although nearby resistance and the continuing pullback are eroding its strength.

Conversely, a recovery in BTC could carry the price towards the 50% retracement at $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,386.

BTC’s daily chart presents a neutral consolidation pattern. The price holds above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,691 and $76,306 respectively, while the 50-day EMA at $80,816 continues to cap gains. Trading between these trend indicators points to a broadly bullish backdrop, tempered by short-term hesitation. A daily RSI reading of 43 indicates waning momentum, while the MACD’s position below zero also suggests limited bullish impetus.

The first resistance on the upside lies at the 50-day EMA of $80,816. Beyond that, the horizontal level near $85,000 presents a firmer obstacle, where earlier selling pressure could return.

Initial downside support lies at the 100-day EMA of $77,691, followed by a deeper structural floor at the 200-day EMA near $76,306. A daily close beneath these underlying averages would probably shift the short-term outlook back towards a more bearish stance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)