Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to macro signals amid changing derivatives narrative
- Bitcoin’s sensitivity to US rate expectations intensified as Waller’s comments triggered a rally before stronger payroll data reversed gains.
- Binance’s TradFi perpetual volume peaked at $16.8 billion compared to $16.3 billion for BTCUSDT, suggesting rotation into TradFi products when crypto weakens.
- Hyperliquid now ranks third in Bitcoin perpetual open interest with 34,500 BTC, behind Binance and Bybit.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) sensitivity to US economic data has become increasingly evident this year. As the market approaches several important data dumps this week, BTC traders are keenly aware of the significance just like their counterparts in TradFi.
And just like the stock market, crypto traders are focused squarely on the US central bank's interest rate policy.
Bitcoin consolidates as macro developments weigh on price
The top crypto’s price action last week showed “clear signs of heightened sensitivity to macro headlines,” particularly changes in expectations for US interest rates, according to a Tuesday report from K33. The report noted that markets rallied on Thursday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would favor keeping rates unchanged if incoming data confirmed that inflation was cooling.
Following his comments, the probability of a Fed rate hike was repriced from 63% to 50%, while both Bitcoin and equities moved higher. BTC subsequently gave back gains after payroll data came in above expectations, reinforcing expectations of a resilient labor market.
“The week highlighted that BTC is currently behaving very responsive to US economic data,” K33 wrote, adding that US rate expectations are now “a key directional price component.”
The report identified this week’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases, which arrive respectively on Thursday and Friday, as potential volatility catalysts ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16.
K33 also pointed to the September 15 Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act as another event that could move the market. If the cloture vote fails, an enactment of the legislation in 2026 would become “highly unlikely.”
Crypto derivatives market shows structural changes
The report also pointed to growth in non-crypto perpetual products.
K33 said perpetual contracts tied to commodities, equity indexes and equities have become a significant business for crypto exchanges. On July 16, Binance’s 30-day average volume for TradFi perpetuals surpassed the volume of its BTCUSDT perpetual.
Although TradFi perpetual volumes have declined since August 16 while Bitcoin perpetual volumes have increased, TradFi activity remains higher on a 30-day average basis. Its year-to-date peak reached $16.8 billion, compared with $16.3 billion for BTC perpetuals.
K33 shared that the timing of the TradFi volume peak, which coincided with Bitcoin volumes reaching a low, “may suggest that Binance traders rotate into TradFi products when crypto activity weakens, before returning once crypto markets revive.”
Such activity could make crypto exchanges more resilient during periods of weak crypto activity. Bitcoin perpetual open interest (OI) currently stands at 320,000 BTC. Hyperliquid accounts for 34,500 BTC, more than twice the aggregate open interest in offshore calendar Bitcoin futures.
That makes Hyperliquid the third-largest venue by Bitcoin perpetual open interest. Binance remains dominant with 43.5% of total open interest, followed by Bybit at 19.4%. K33 described Hyperliquid’s position as “a notable achievement for a decentralized competitor.”
The developments come as overall market activity has slowed following Bitcoin’s late-August rally. Spot volumes have fallen toward pre-summer lows and derivatives yields have compressed, leaving the market in “a clear hiatus.”
BTC is trading at $78,500, down 1% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.
