Cardano Price Forecast: ADA recovery threatened by weak momentum

• The 50-day EMA near $0.228 proved a barrier to Wednesday’s close, leaving Cardano trading below $0.222 on Thursday.
• Deteriorating derivatives indicators remain a constraint on ADA’s recovery.
• Momentum appears to be weakening in the technical picture, and a close beneath support at the 100-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near $0.228, capped Cardano’s gains on Wednesday, with ADA trading below $0.222 on Thursday. Sentiment remains under pressure from deteriorating derivatives indicators and waning bullish momentum. A breach of the 100-day EMA could send ADA further down.

Cardano recovery remains constrained by weaker derivatives indicators

CoinGlass’ ADA long-to-short ratios stand at 0.79 on Thursday, close to their lowest reading in over a month, reflecting caution in Cardano’s derivatives market. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for asset prices to decline.

Having turned negative on Wednesday, Cardano’s funding rate stands at -0.0025% on Thursday. This means short-position holders are paying those with long positions, pointing to a bearish outlook.

On-chain indicators point to a bearish bias

A bearish picture for Cardano emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders feature in ADA’s futures markets, where conditions are heating up, while sellers dominate both spot and futures trading. Together, these signals suggest a cautious, bearish bias among Cardano traders.

Cardano technical outlook: Momentum indicators lose strength

At $0.221 on Thursday, Cardano remains beneath its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the short-term outlook skewed to the downside. The price sits just above the 100-day EMA at around $0.220. Meanwhile, the breach of rising trendline support near $0.210 suggests that the broader corrective phase is still under way.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still negative. Both reinforce the cautious picture, indicating that downward pressure is easing but has yet to reverse.

An advance would first encounter the 50-day EMA near $0.230, with further resistance at the horizontal level around $0.236 and the 200-day EMA near $0.240. Stronger barriers lie towards $0.250 and then $0.300.

The 100-day EMA around $0.220 bolsters immediate support, followed by the region near $0.210 where the former rising trendline was breached. A sustained fall below that area would bring deeper support from the historical trendline closer to $0.170 into view.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)