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US ADP employment change falls to a 4-week average of 18.50K
- Weekly US private-sector job gains averaged 18.50K in early October.
- Hiring continued to lose momentum.
An average of 18.50K jobs per week were added by US private employers in the four weeks ending 3 October, according to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report. The figures point to some easing in private-sector hiring momentum in early October.
Compared with the previous reading of 24.75K, this represents a modest decline and indicates a further cooling in recruitment.
US Dollar retreats alongside Treasury yields
With US Treasury yields falling across the curve, the US Dollar remains under pressure on Tuesday despite higher crude oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped back below 102.00.
Employment explained
As a measure of economic health, labour market conditions play a central role in determining currency valuations. Strong employment, or low unemployment, supports consumer spending and, in turn, economic growth, helping to strengthen the domestic currency. Inflation and monetary policy can also be affected when the labour market is particularly tight, meaning there are too few workers to fill available posts. In such circumstances, limited labour supply and strong demand push wages higher.
For policymakers, the rate of wage increases across an economy is an important consideration. When wages rise rapidly, households have more money available to spend, which usually pushes up the prices of consumer goods. Wage growth is regarded as a key source of underlying, persistent inflation because pay rises are unlikely to be reversed, unlike more volatile inflation drivers such as energy prices. This is why central banks worldwide closely monitor wage data when setting monetary policy.
A central bank’s objectives determine how much importance it places on labour market conditions. For some, the mandate explicitly includes labour market goals alongside inflation control. For instance, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices, whereas the European Central Bank (ECB) has the sole mandate of keeping inflation under control. Whatever their particular mandates, policymakers regard labour market conditions as important because they provide a measure of economic health and are directly linked to inflation.
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