Can Bitcoin hold $77,000 support ahead of the Fed decision?

• Bitcoin's next major support lies in the $77,000 to $77,765 zone after a 9.3% retreat from its 21 September high of $87,392.
• Leveraged positions in the leading cryptocurrency appeared to build during the sell-off, with futures open interest rising to 669,253 BTC on 25 October even as prices declined.
• Slower selling by long-term holders and Bitcoin's rebound above its 50-week moving average prompted Galaxy Research to declare an end to the bear market.

Selling pressure and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision are likely to extend Bitcoin's decline, according to Bitfinex analysts. The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is testing crucial support after dropping to $79,250 over the weekend.

Can Bitcoin hold $77,000 support ahead of the Fed decision?

According to its Alpha report released on Monday, Bitfinex said Bitcoin's 9.3% retreat from the 21 September high of $87,392 represented its sharpest correction since the July cycle low.

After holding for several weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's $81,300 support gave way. Bitfinex now regards this level as resistance. With around 874,000 BTC held in the $81,000 to $82,500 range, attempts to recover could encounter further selling pressure, the firm said.

Using the cost basis of large investors and the True Market Mean, Bitfinex placed the next significant support zone between $77,000 and $77,765.

For the current consolidation phase to signal an end, the exchange said Bitcoin would need to sustain a recovery above $82,500, backed by a revival in demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on 28 October nevertheless remains a source of risk. Markets broadly anticipate no change in interest rates, but the increased probability of a December rate hike could curb appetite for riskier assets.

A further concern flagged by Bitfinex was the absence of the usual reset in Bitcoin derivatives positioning that accompanies lasting market bottoms. Despite the fall in Bitcoin's price, total futures open interest increased to 669,253 BTC on 25 October. This suggests traders were still adding positions through the sell-off.

Why does Galaxy Digital believe Bitcoin's bear market ended in June?

Galaxy Research sees the recent weakness in Bitcoin differently: it argued that BTC's broader bear market is already over. In its view, the leading cryptocurrency is moving into an accumulation phase before its next potential rise.

In a report released on Thursday, Alex Thorn, Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research, highlighted a stronger case for buying and holding Bitcoin. He pointed to reduced selling pressure, better technical indicators and rising US government debt.

Thorn set out the firm's position: “We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left: these are all reasons we remain bullish on Bitcoin,” he wrote.

With a decline of roughly 53% from its October 2025 peak, Bitcoin's most recent bear market was its shallowest on record, Galaxy said. By comparison, earlier bear markets saw losses of between 77% and 93%.

After spending 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average, Bitcoin closed above it for five successive weeks through 18 October, the firm noted. Galaxy therefore views the sustained rebound above this indicator as a sign that the market has moved into a new phase.

Long-term holders have also reduced their selling. In 2026, Bitcoin moved from wallets that had remained untouched for at least five years averaged 34,000 BTC per month, compared with 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024.

Much of the supply released by these holders was absorbed by spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasury companies, according to Galaxy.

The firm nevertheless outlined a potential warning that its bullish assessment could be wrong: a weekly close below $76,540, followed by an inability to regain that level within a month.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $80,050, a decline of 0.2% over the past 24 hours.