Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE slides further as derivatives metrics weaken and market conditions remain overheated

• Near-term sentiment towards Dogecoin remains bearish as its decline continues below $0.077 and all key EMAs.
• The bearish view is underpinned by weakening derivatives indicators and overheated trading conditions.
• Further downside remains a risk, with technical signals also pointing to a loss of strength.

Selling pressure keeps Dogecoin (DOGE) on the back foot on Monday, with the token extending its fall below $0.077 and all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The risk of additional declines is rising as derivatives indicators weaken and market conditions overheat, leaving DOGE exposed to further selling.

What are weakening derivatives indicators signalling?

Caution towards the meme coin is evident in derivatives positioning. On Monday, CoinGlass’ DOGE long-to-short ratio stands at 0.84, close to its lowest reading in over a month. Readings below one reflect bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for lower asset prices.

By contrast, Monday saw Dogecoin’s funding rate turn positive to 0.0019%. This means holders of long positions are paying those holding short positions, pointing to a mildly bullish outlook.

Why does on-chain data point to a bearish bias?

A bearish picture also emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data for Dogecoin. Large whale orders are appearing in both DOGE’s spot and futures markets as conditions heat up, while sellers dominate across the two markets. Taken together, these signals suggest that meme coin traders remain cautious and inclined towards a bearish view.

Is there room for optimism?

Buying by some large-wallet holders, or whales, is helping cushion DOGE’s price decline, lending a mildly bullish tone to Santiment’s Supply Distribution data. Despite the fall in price, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million tokens (red line), 1 million and 10 million tokens (yellow line), and 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have collectively accumulated 260 million DOGE tokens since October 21, according to the metric.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Do weakening momentum indicators signal more downside?

The near-term technical bias remains bearish for Dogecoin, which trades at $0.0776 on Monday as its decline continues below all key EMAs.

The closest horizontal hurdle for DOGE is $0.077. Above it, the 50-day EMA and 100-day EMA, both at $0.084, provide another ceiling within a wider supply zone encompassing $0.088 and the broken rising trendline pivot at $0.089. Higher resistance in the ongoing downtrend lies at the 200-day EMA of $0.090, followed by the more distant horizontal level of $0.102. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 33, bearish momentum is pushing towards oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below zero with a flat negative line, suggesting that downside pressure persists without gathering pace.

A decisive break by sellers below the current $0.076 area would put the horizontal support near $0.069 in focus as the next downside target. While DOGE remains below the nearby $0.077 ceiling and the EMA cluster at $0.084, rebounds are likely to be treated as corrections within the wider downtrend. Easing the prevailing bearish tone would require a sustained daily close above $0.088–$0.089.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)