Why are centralised exchanges gaining RWA market share at Hyperliquid’s expense?

• Competitive pressure pushed Hyperliquid’s share of RWA perpetual futures trading down to 26% from 80% in July, with centralised exchanges securing 64% of trading volume.
• As competition intensified, Binance expanded its RWA market share to 30% from 3% in two weeks, while OKX’s share rose to 14%.
• Support at the 100-day EMA, slightly above $75.6, helped HYPE rebound.

Competitive pressure from centralised exchanges (CEXs) is eroding Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) share of real-world asset (RWA) perpetual futures trading, against a backdrop of strain across the broader financial market.

Centralised exchanges now command a combined 64% of the market, while Hyperliquid’s trade.xyz has seen its share shrink to 26%. In July, trade.xyz represented roughly 80% of RWA perpetual trading volume, according to Artemis figures shared by Ark Invest Digital Asset Head of Research Lorenzo Valente. Over this period, weekly trading volume has doubled to tripled, rising from around $20 billion to between $40 billion and $60 billion.

Rather than merely drawing existing volume away from other venues, centralised exchanges appear to be securing most of the incremental trading activity, the figures suggest.

Are CEXs gaining ground in RWA perpetuals at Hyperliquid’s expense?

Within two weeks, Binance reportedly lifted its share to 30% from 3%, with OKX reaching 14% during the same period. Gate and Bitget are strengthening their presence as well.

Behind this expansion is centralised exchanges’ ability to combine exposure to traditional assets with their established crypto trading products.

An early advantage for Hyperliquid was its round-the-clock access to assets whose traditional markets operate only during restricted hours.

At the start of the year, geopolitical tensions increased the appeal of oil perpetual futures as traders looked to react to events beyond conventional market hours. With continuous oil trading available on only a few venues, Hyperliquid drew activity from traders outside its core crypto-native audience.

That initial edge is now narrowing, however, as centralised exchanges introduce comparable access to traditional assets.

In March, Binance introduced TradFi perpetual contracts offering exposure to commodities such as gold and silver, selected stocks including Tesla and Intel, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Settled in USDT, these contracts support round-the-clock trading.

July saw OKX introduce more than 40 tokenised US stocks and ETFs, enabling 24/7 trading against USDT in supported regions. Through its unified markets, users can access assets such as Apple, Nvidia and Tesla using their existing exchange accounts.

Traditional financial institutions are also advancing into tokenised securities as this competitive landscape changes. In January, the NYSE outlined plans for a platform enabling 24/7 trading and blockchain-based settlement of tokenised securities, subject to regulatory approval.

Subsequently, plans for an on-chain tokenised securities venue were announced by OKX and NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) through their joint venture, OKXICE.

In September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also introduced its Innovation Exemption. This provides conditional, temporary regulatory relief for qualifying venues that trade certain tokenised US-listed stocks.

Hyperliquid nevertheless remains a major venue for perpetual futures despite its declining RWA market share, with total perpetual futures volume of $208.07 billion over 30 days.

Hyperliquid technical outlook: Can HYPE maintain the 100-day EMA and $75.6 support?

Near-term sentiment towards HYPE remains bearish on the daily chart, with the token trading at $77.8 at the time of writing, a decline of 3.8% over the past 24 hours. Although it rebounded from the 100-day EMA near $76, the price remains below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped just above $82.00.

Weak momentum readings indicate that downward pressure continues despite the modest recovery from recent lows: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is near 17.

The 100-day EMA offers immediate downside support slightly above the $75.69 horizontal level. Below that, the next support levels are $67.64, followed by $61.16.

For a recovery, the first resistance lies at $82.10, where the short-term EMAs converge, followed by a stronger hurdle at $85.04. Sustained trading above that zone would clear a path towards the major resistance marked at $97.84.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)