WTI Oil Price Forecast: Can buyers drive a breakout above $100 as upward pressure mounts?

Can WTI Oil reach $100 as Middle East supply risks persist?
Buyers retain the advantage on the daily chart, with WTI holding above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs.
Further upside towards $105 could open up if prices break decisively above $100.

A sizeable geopolitical risk premium continues to support energy markets, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil recovering on Thursday as persistent Middle East tensions heighten supply concerns. WTI is trading around $99 at the time of writing, a gain of 1.40% on the day and close to five-week highs.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Concerns over additional disruptions to Oil supplies have intensified following the latest events in the Middle East.

Renewed strikes on Iran after the United States (US) midterm elections are being considered by the US and Israel, according to The New York Times. Potential targets include the country's energy facilities.

Reports of attacks on the Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport have come as the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continues without signs of easing. In response to the situation, the US State Department has also directed non-emergency government staff and their families to depart Saudi Arabia.

Concerns remain acute over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Four vessels involved in Oil transfers in the Gulf were targeted by its navy, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed. In a separate incident, three other ships reportedly struck mines near the Strait and caught fire.

Even as tensions intensify, producers' growing use of alternative shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz has helped Middle East Oil exports return to pre-war levels. The Financial Times, citing Kpler data, reported that shipments from Gulf Oil producers excluding Iran averaged 24.6 million barrels per day in the week ending 18 October, exceeding the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels per day.

Can the technical setup support further gains?

Buyers retain the near-term advantage in WTI US Oil on the daily chart, with prices comfortably above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $91. The longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs sit together just under $85. Momentum also remains supportive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at around 64, is in positive territory but has not yet reached overbought extremes, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive. Taken together, these indicators point to solid upward momentum, while an Average Directional Index (ADX) near 27 signals a moderately strong underlying trend.

The psychological $100.00 mark presents the first resistance, followed by $105 should buyers sustain the rally. Support initially lies around today's opening area near $98.98. Below that, the 50-day SMA at around $91.01 provides firmer structural support, followed by a deeper medium-term support zone comprising the 100-day SMA at $84.67, the 200-day SMA at $84.11 and the horizontal levels of $80.00 and $75.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil: Common questions

What does WTI Oil refer to?

Among the Crude Oil varieties traded internationally, WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate and is one of three major types alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its comparatively low gravity and sulphur content earn it the descriptions “light” and “sweet”, respectively. Regarded as high-quality Oil, it can be refined easily. WTI originates in the United States and reaches the market through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. The media frequently cites WTI prices, reflecting its role as an Oil market benchmark.

What determines WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand underpin WTI Oil prices, as they do those of other assets. Stronger global growth can therefore lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, wars, sanctions and political instability can cause disruptions that affect prices. Decisions taken by OPEC, the group of major Oil-producing countries, are another important influence. Because Oil is traded mainly in US Dollars, the currency's value also affects WTI Crude Oil prices: a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable, while a stronger currency can do the opposite.

Why do inventory figures affect WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to weekly Oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock movements reveal shifts in supply and demand. Falling inventories may point to stronger demand and push Oil prices higher. Rising stocks, by contrast, can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar, differing by no more than 1% in 75% of cases. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

What role does OPEC play in WTI Oil pricing?

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 Oil-producing nations that make up OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently influence WTI Oil prices. A reduction in quotas can restrict supply and lift Oil prices, whereas an increase in production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping includes ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable among them.