TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 28 September 2026

Morning Snapshot

• Oil prices climbed sharply as U.S.-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz showed little progress, with Brent trading above $107 and WTI rising above $94.
• U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not rule out additional strikes on Iran and rejected Tehran’s latest proposal to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Middle East supply risks in focus.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said the U.S.-China trade ceasefire has been extended by two months to January 10, 2027.
• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said inflation risks are increasingly tilted to the upside, reinforcing expectations that further rate increases remain possible.
• Bank of Japan minutes showed policymakers agreed financial conditions remain accommodative, while separate commentary from former BOJ official Makoto Momma pointed to a 20%-30% chance of another 25 basis point rate increase.
• Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said markets should take seriously last week’s joint U.S.-Japan message on the yen, underscoring Tokyo’s readiness to respond to excessive currency moves.
• The U.S. Dollar Index held near 101.10 as hawkish Federal Reserve signals continued to support the dollar.
• Gold fell to around $4,215 and slipped below $4,200 in broader market trading as higher U.S. yields and a firmer dollar weighed on bullion.
• U.S. equity futures moved lower, with Dow Jones futures down 0.35%, S&P 500 futures off 0.47% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.97%.
• The Australian dollar firmed ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Tuesday policy decision, with markets focused on the prospect of another rate increase.

Market Developments

Energy

Brent traded above $107, up 2.58% to $107.01, while WTI rose above $94.50 and was up nearly 3.5% at $94.60 as Middle East tensions and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations kept supply risks elevated.

U.S. Equities

U.S. stock-index futures weakened, with Dow Jones futures down 0.35% to 51,970, S&P 500 futures down 0.47% to 7,770 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.97% to 30,590.

Government Bonds

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield up 3.8 basis points and the 2-year yield up 4.6 basis points in European morning trade.

Foreign Exchange

The U.S. Dollar Index held around 101.10, sterling traded near 1.3256 against the dollar, EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1380, USD/CHF hovered near a 16-month high of 0.8314 and AUD/USD traded near 0.7010.

Precious Metals

Gold fell to around $4,215 in early Asian trade and was reported below $4,200 later in the session as higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar pressured bullion.

Geopolitics, Trade & Commodities

Oil Jumps as U.S.-Iran Talks Stall and Hormuz Reopening Remains Unresolved

Oil prices rose sharply at the start of the week as negotiations between Washington and Tehran showed little sign of a breakthrough over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded above $107 and was up 2.58% at $107.01, while WTI climbed above $94.50 and was up nearly 3.5% at $94.60 after earlier trading around $93.05 and above $92.

Iran reiterated over the weekend that it would not soften its conditions for reopening the strait. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would not back down from demands including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and an end to U.S. blockade measures. Reports also said U.S. and Iranian negotiators had been exploring a deal under which Tehran would reopen the waterway and Washington would lift the blockade of Iranian ports.

The latest rise in crude also came amid broader geopolitical strain, including reports of attacks near Riyadh and continued uncertainty over whether U.S.-Iran talks could resume this week. The renewed move higher in oil prices fed into a wider sell-off in global bond markets, with U.S. Treasury yields also moving higher.

Trump Keeps Pressure on Iran and Says More Strikes Are Not Ruled Out

U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes the war with Iran will be won “very soon” and said additional military strikes before the midterm elections remain possible, according to Fox News. He also rejected Tehran’s latest proposal to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move that added to market concerns over energy supply disruption.

At the same time, Trump said he expects renewed talks with Iran this week, leaving diplomacy formally open even as military pressure remains on the table. The combination of stalled negotiations, unresolved conditions around Hormuz and the possibility of further strikes kept Middle East risk at the center of market attention.

U.S.-China Trade Ceasefire Extended to January 2027

China’s Commerce Ministry said U.S. and Chinese officials confirmed a two-month extension of the bilateral trade truce, moving its expiration date to January 10, 2027 from November 10. The announcement keeps the current ceasefire in place for longer at a time when broader geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

The ministry’s statement provided no additional policy detail beyond the extension, but the move removes an immediate deadline risk from the U.S.-China trade relationship heading into the final months of the year.

Central Banks & Macro Policy

BoE’s Ramsden Warns Inflation Risks Are Tilting Higher

Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said risks to the U.K. inflation outlook have become increasingly tilted to the upside, reinforcing a hawkish tone from several policymakers. His comments added to expectations that further rate increases remain possible if price pressures do not ease sufficiently.

Sterling strengthened in response, rising 0.13% to near 1.3256 against the U.S. dollar during European trading. The move left the pound higher against most major peers, with the yen the main exception.

BOJ Minutes Show Policy Still Accommodative as Markets Weigh Another Hike

Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting showed board members agreed that financial conditions remain accommodative, underscoring that policy settings are still supportive even after the central bank’s recent tightening steps.

At the same time, former BOJ executive director Makoto Momma said another 25 basis point increase at the end of October is a “real possibility,” though he put the probability at only 20% to 30%. If delivered, it would mark the BOJ’s first back-to-back rate increase in decades and the first monthly back-to-back move since 1980.

The combination of accommodative conditions in the official minutes and market discussion of another hike kept attention on the BOJ’s next move and on the durability of yen-funded carry trades.

Japan Repeats Intervention Warning on the Yen

Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said markets should take at face value the “very clear” message delivered jointly by Tokyo and Washington last week on the yen, signaling that Japanese authorities remain prepared to respond to excessive currency weakness.

The remarks reinforced official concern over sharp moves in the Japanese currency even as markets also digest a more hawkish BOJ policy backdrop. The yen trimmed part of Friday’s rebound against the dollar in Monday trading despite the intervention warnings.

Hawkish Fed Tone Supports Dollar and Pressures Gold

The U.S. dollar remained firm as markets continued to absorb hawkish Federal Reserve signals. The Dollar Index held around 101.10, while EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1380 and USD/CHF hovered near a fresh 16-month high of 0.8314.

The same backdrop weighed on bullion. Gold fell to around $4,215 in early Asian trading and was later reported below $4,200 as higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar reduced support for the metal.

Broader market pricing also reflected the shift in rates expectations, with U.S. Treasury yields moving higher and stock-index futures turning lower at the start of the week.

Asia-Pacific Focus

Australian Dollar Firms Ahead of RBA Decision

The Australian dollar traded mixed but remained in focus ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision on Tuesday. In European trading, the currency outperformed most major peers except the U.S. dollar as markets positioned for the possibility of another rate increase.

Earlier in the session, AUD/USD traded near 0.7010 as rising U.S. Treasury yields and stronger Federal Reserve tightening expectations supported the greenback. The RBA decision is the main scheduled policy event for Australia in the near term and is drawing close market attention.

Upcoming Key Events

• Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Decision — Tuesday: Markets are focused on the RBA’s policy meeting, with attention on whether the central bank raises interest rates again.
• Potential U.S.-Iran Talks — This week: Donald Trump said he expects renewed talks with Iran this week as negotiations over hostilities and the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
• Bank of Japan Policy Meeting — End of October: Former BOJ official Makoto Momma said another 25 basis point increase is a real possibility at the BOJ’s next meeting, though he put the probability at 20% to 30%.