Bitcoin Price Forecast: Rising yields, stronger US Dollar cap BTC upside

• Bitcoin remains under pressure, slipping below $86,000 on Tuesday as profit-taking activity intensifies.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded a mild outflow of $89.90 on Monday, while Strategy added 334 BTC to its reserve.
• Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar are weighing on BTC and could limit its upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure, trading below $86,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday, as profit-taking intensifies. Mixed sentiment among corporate and institutional demand as Strategy (MSTR) added 334 BTC to its reserves while spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a mild $89.90 million outflow on Monday.

Moreover, rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD) are creating additional headwinds for the Crypto King and raising doubts about whether BTC's bullish momentum can sustain.

Institutional demand cools

Institutional demand started the week with mild cautionary signs. SoSoValue data showed that BTC spot ETFs recorded a mild outflow of $89.90 million on Monday, snapping the two-day inflows streak since last week. If this outflow trend continues and intensifies throughout this week, BTC could extend its pullback.

On the corporate side, Michael Saylor announced on Monday that his firm, Strategy, acquired another 334 BTC last week, continuing its three-week buying streak (1,665 BTC and 950 BTC).

The company currently holds 848,000 BTC and its total reserves are $5.70 billion in USD Assets. The move suggests Saylor’s company is returning to its familiar approach of aggressively accumulating BTC, supporting a bullish outlook for BTC.

Rising US yields and stronger US Dollar weigh on BTC

Bitcoin bulls are losing momentum, with the Crypto King remaining under pressure around its recent high at $87,000 and consolidating below this zone.

The 10-year US Treasury yield, as shown in the chart below, rose and posted a fresh two-decade high near 5.35% on Monday, now holding strong around 5.28%. These higher yields make traditional fixed-income assets more attractive than risky assets such as BTC.

In addition, a stronger Greenback further weighs on BTC, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching an intraday high of $102.53 on Monday, reaching levels not seen since early April 2025.

“Cryptocurrencies are finding support in reduced expectations of an October rate hike, institutional purchases, and the expansion of projects connecting blockchain with traditional finance,” Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, said to FXStreet in an exclusive interview.

However, elevated US Treasury yields, a stronger US Dollar and persistent inflationary pressures continue to weigh on market sentiment. For a sustained recovery, bullish momentum needs to broaden across more crypto assets and be supported by persistent demand. Investors will also need to distinguish between genuine adoption, growth expectations and speculative price movements.

Profit-taking activity surges to a new yearly high

Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric indicates Bitcoin holders are booking profits, weighing on BTC price in the near term.

As shown in the chart below, the metric spiked sharply on Monday, reaching its highest level since November 23, 2025. This spike indicates that holders are, on average, selling their bags at a significant profit, thereby increasing the selling pressure.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC holds key $85,000 support

Bitcoin price trades at $85,834 on Tuesday after a mild correction the previous day. Despite the pullback, BTC is sustaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds comfortably above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79,430, $75,565, and $75,056, respectively.

The cluster of medium- and long-term EMAs below price hints at a well-supported uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 stays in positive territory without yet reaching overbought conditions, suggesting buyers still retain control despite a mildly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reading, with the MACD line below zero and subdued momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nearby horizontal level around $85,000, followed by the 50-day EMA at $79,430, which would be the first significant dynamic floor on a deeper pullback. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $75,565 and the 200-day EMA at $75,056 reinforce a broader bullish structure, before more distant horizontal levels at $66,500 and $62,300 mark major medium-term demand zones.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)