Trump Is Getting Anxious, Acting With Words And Actions! "Once The Election Ends, The War Ends Immediately." Trump Promised Gasoline Would Fall Below $2, But In The Same Week He Bombed 10 Iranian Oil Tankers

The US-Iran conflict has entered its seventh month, and Trump promised "four to five weeks" at the start of the war; Last week, he downplayed the conflict as "a minor matter." Now, he has pushed the end to after election day, less than two months until November 3, and American consumers will have to wait at least eight more weeks before seeing oil prices ease.

Ironically, another piece of news on the same day: the U.S. military announced that it had destroyed 10 Iranian oil tankers in the past week, five of which were destroyed on the 8th in response to Iran's missile attack attempt on a U.S. warship. On one hand, they promised "oil prices would plummet after the war," while on the other, they continuously cut the marginal capacity of global oil supply. These two things combined form the most crucial key to understanding the current oil market.

There is a clear logical leap in Trump's statement: he first asserted that "the war will end immediately after the election," then answered "they can't hold on any longer" when pressed for the basis, and then admitted that the oil price decline "will take longer than the midterm elections." If the war really ended immediately after the election and oil prices "plummeted," then the decline should have occurred simultaneously. Keeping these two points apart means acknowledging two things: war and high oil prices will not end in the short term.

The market's reaction was more direct. Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at fuel analysis firm GasBuddy, openly expressed skepticism about the forecast of "post-election oil price declines." This distrust has its reasons: throughout the war, Trump repeatedly declared that a peace agreement with Tehran was imminent, but none were fulfilled; In recent weeks, he has clearly shifted to another path: no longer betting on diplomatic breakthroughs, but instead winning by destroying Iran's military power and strangling its economy.

The Reality Is: Gasoline At $4.22, Diesel Hitting A Record High, And Oil Reserves At Historic Lows

Trump talked about "oil prices," but American consumers are feeling refined oil. AAA data shows that on Wednesday, the average price of regular gasoline across the U.S. rose overnight by 7 cents to $4.22 per gallon, more than $1 higher than the same period last year; the average diesel price climbed to $5.94, a record high. California's situation is even more extreme, with diesel prices approaching $8 per gallon, and some cities averaging near $8.50.

Diesel's price increase is even more concerning than gasoline's, because its pricing carries an inflation transmission chain. Diesel is used in agriculture, trucking, and last-mile distribution; rising costs first enter the commodity circulation segment, then shelf prices—this is the fastest and hardest segment to hedge during energy shocks. Lipow Oil Associates' estimates put it on a scale: consumers actually pay about $177 per barrel for gasoline, while diesel is as high as $250 per barrel.

More challenging than the price itself is the thickness of the buffer cushion. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently stands at only about 285 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982, down more than 100 million barrels from early 2026; The International Energy Agency's announcement in March released about three-quarters of the 400 million barrels of emergency reserves has already been released. This explains why this round of oil price increases is significantly greater than market expectations: the market is not pricing in a single attack, but "how much inventory will be available to save the market when the next attack comes."

Trump's Words And Actions Are At Odds: The Military Action Itself Is An Extension Of The Supply Recovery Period

Let's return to the 10 destroyed Iranian oil tankers. Li Zixin, Middle East expert at the China Institute of International Studies, has broken down the purpose of the US military's repeated attacks on tankers in the past week in three layers: First, to directly link the strikes on tankers to protecting US warships, creating a deterrence narrative based on circular retaliation. US Central Command Commander Cooper has clearly stated that when Iran launches missiles at two US ships, the US destroys three Iranian tankers to deter attacks at unequal cost; Second, to cut off the oil transport capabilities of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 'shadow fleet', using economic strangulation instead of ground escalation, maximizing pressure without crossing Iran's territorial red lines; Third, continuing to reduce shipping capacity means that even if an agreement is reached in the future, Iran will face several years of recovery, forcing it to make concessions in the final negotiations.

The third point is key. It means the goal of this military operation is precisely to prevent supply from quickly recovering, and the narrative of a "sharp postwar drop in oil prices" assumes supply can be quickly restored. Logically, these two things cannot hold up simultaneously: the more thoroughly the destruction of capacity, the slower the supply recovery after the ceasefire. The more "successful" the war becomes, the smoother Trump's promised oil price decline curve becomes.

Iran's countermeasures are driving up another cost. On September 9, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the establishment of a new maritime "sanction zone" in parts of the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea, roughly extending from the southeastern port of Chabahar to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The special feature of this zone is its method: no firing or detaining ships, but cutting off maritime services, insurance support, and navigation guarantees for unauthorized vessels, and threatening to permanently freeze their transit rights in the Strait of Hormuz. For global shipping, this directly affects the underwriting stage: rising transit costs are first reflected in war insurance premiums, which then pass on to spot premiums. On the same day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have struck two U.S. warships and eight oil tankers, while the U.S. denied any attacks on their vessels.

What is even more noteworthy is the trajectory of the red lines on both sides. Li Zixin pointed out that the U.S. red line is that Iran must not directly attack U.S. naval vessels, while Iran's red line is that the U.S. must not systematically eliminate its oil fleet, the latter directly affecting Iran's oil exports and fiscal survival. Currently, both sides are continuously testing each other's bottom lines, with the red line shifting from military facilities to economic targets and then to military vessels, with misjudgments and risks accumulating.

Eight-Week Countdown: Three Paths For Votes And Oil Prices

These eight weeks are crucial because high oil prices have become a matter of votes. Polls at the end of August show that the cost of living is the most important issue for American voters in the midterm elections, with 47% of registered voters listing it as the most important factor in their choices, and 71% of the public disapprove of Trump's approach to the cost of living; Trump's overall approval rating has dropped to a low of 33% during his term, and betting market data shows the probability that Democrats will win control of the House is as high as 90%. What unsettles Republicans even more is the shift in economic advantage: Democrats have led Republicans for a month in a row on "which party is better capable of solving economic problems," for the first time in a decade; Republican campaign strategists admit that energy prices and tariffs are hitting Republican candidates especially hard in key states like Michigan, Maine, and Iowa.

Looking ahead, there are roughly three paths for oil prices. If an unexpected agreement is reached or a substantial ceasefire occurs before the election, the geopolitical premium will quickly retreat, and oil prices may retreat toward the fundamental center of $90 to $95. This is the scenario Trump bets on, but currently lacks a basis for negotiations. If the conflict maintains its current intensity and both sides continue to attack each other around the strait, oil prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels in the $95 to $120 range, with pressure on refined oil prices continuing after the election. If energy infrastructure suffers large-scale damage and passage through Hormuz shrinks further, oil prices will hit $150, and the linkage of inflation and rate hike expectations will transfer pressure from the energy market to US Treasuries and the stock market.

There are four key points to watch next: whether the actual daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz can stabilize (the most direct hard data for judging whether the geopolitical premium has peaked), whether tanker spot freight rates and war insurance premiums continue to rise, whether the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will begin a new round of release, and the actual direction of the war after November 3.