Indian Rupee’s Winning Streak Against US Dollar Stalls on Thursday

• After reaching a fresh high of almost seven weeks, the Indian Rupee retreats against the US Dollar.
• Further support for INR is likely from growing foreign inflows, new RBI measures and active intervention.
• October’s flash PMI readings for India and the US are the next focus for investors.

Trading near 94.78, USD/INR has rebounded after drawing substantial buying interest around the seven-week low of 97.33. The Indian Rupee (INR) is struggling to secure an eighth consecutive trading day of gains against the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, a range of favourable factors is expected to keep supporting the Indian currency.

INR retains a favourable outlook as supportive factors build

The Indian currency’s rally is being driven by several factors. These include repeated intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets, newly announced measures to restrain demand for the US Dollar, and substantial foreign fund inflows for the Jio Platforms Initial Public Offering (IPO).

According to DBS Group Research, the Reserve Bank of India has introduced a “multi-layered defence strategy to support the rupee this year,” encompassing “outright intervention in spot/forwards, regulatory action, liquidity steps, administrative measures and moves to curb import-related dollar demand.” DBS says the authorities “are likely not done yet and remain ready to take further action, as required,” while RBI Governor Malhotra reinforced the central bank’s commitment in a recent Moneycontrol interview on 13 October. He stressed that “The RBI is determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure orderly movement in the foreign exchange market.”

Separately, Groww reports that Reliance Industries-backed Jio Platforms launched its ₹30,213 crore IPO on 21 October 2026, with the offer remaining open until 23 October.

India and US flash PMI releases come into focus

Friday will bring October’s preliminary private-sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for India and the US, which investors are watching closely.

 The US S&P Global PMI release is likely to indicate another expansion in overall business activity, albeit at a moderate pace.

USD/INR Remains Under Pressure Below the 20-Day EMA

At 94.78 on the daily chart, USD/INR remains below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 95.43, leaving the near-term outlook bearish. Acting as immediate dynamic resistance, the moving average suggests that rallies are likely to encounter selling while the pair stays beneath it.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.62 and close to oversold territory, downward momentum appears stretched. The indicator has not, however, confirmed a reversal.

A daily close above initial resistance at the 20-day EMA, around 95.43, would be required to alleviate the prevailing bearish pressure and allow a corrective recovery. On the downside, key support lies at the 25 June low of 94.15.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)