Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is geopolitical uncertainty pushing BTC lower despite ETF inflows?

• Most of Bitcoin’s gains earlier this week are at risk as the cryptocurrency loses more than 2% on Thursday.
• A third straight day of positive flows this week saw US-listed Bitcoin attract $528.40 million on Wednesday.
• Risk appetite is weakening as Middle East tensions intensify, limiting BTC’s recovery.

Bitcoin’s gains earlier this week are under threat as selling pressure pushes Bitcoin (BTC) down more than 2% on Thursday, leaving it below $83,000 at the time of writing. Institutional demand nevertheless continues to provide support: spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have registered inflows for a third successive day so far this week. 

Caution remains warranted for traders, however, as worsening tensions in the Middle East undermine risk appetite and constrain the Crypto King’s recovery.

Can renewed institutional demand support Bitcoin?

Signs of returning institutional interest have emerged this week, with SoSoValue reporting $528.40 million in BTC spot ETF inflows on Wednesday, the third consecutive day of inflows so far this week. Cumulative weekly inflows also surpassed $1 billion through Wednesday, reversing two successive weeks of outflows. A continuation and strengthening of these inflows over the rest of the week could help BTC build on its rebound.

Another development came on Thursday when BIT Asset Management AG, BIT’s wholly owned Swiss asset management subsidiary, announced approval of the Bitcoin Fund ETF (BBIT) by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

FINMA confirmed that the fund is Switzerland’s first exchange-traded fund to invest directly in Bitcoin. Currently the only spot Bitcoin ETF in Europe, it is expected to start trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange in November.

By expanding institutional access to BTC, the launch could support broader adoption and improve the Crypto King’s long-term prospects.

Are Middle East tensions limiting BTC’s rebound?

Four vessels engaged in illegal oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were hit simultaneously and caught fire on Wednesday after being tracked by Iranian forces, according to a Thursday statement by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy reported by Reuters.

Three additional vessels struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC said. It also warned the US military that further provocations could prompt a broader response against its bases in the region.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, also said the country was ready for diplomacy, while stressing that it remained prepared to defend itself. 

With the US showing no willingness to reach an understanding, Araghchi said there was little basis for expecting progress at present. 

In a separate report, The New York Times said the US and Israel had prepared plans for a brief but intensive military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections.

The geopolitical risk premium consequently remains a factor, with these developments weighing on risk appetite and restricting BTC’s recovery.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Can BTC overcome rejection at $85,000?

A constructive bias persists for Bitcoin on Thursday despite the pullback, with the price at $82,287 at the time of writing. BTC continues to trade above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped between approximately $80,900 and $76,100. 

While this alignment of EMAs points to an intact broader uptrend, momentum indicators suggest the advance has lost strength. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 49 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicate that BTC is consolidating rather than advancing with strong upward momentum.

The horizontal barrier around $85,000 represents the nearest resistance. A break above it would open the way to fresh highs and could restore bullish momentum. 

Initial downside support lies at the 50-day EMA near $80,873. Below that, the 100-day EMA around $77,458 and the 200-day EMA around $76,138 define a deeper demand zone; a failure of this zone would be needed to materially weaken the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)