Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Can ETF inflows counter risk-off sentiment as BTC’s pullback continues?

• Selling pressure persists in Bitcoin, with modest losses this week putting it on course for a third straight weekly fall.
• A two-week run of outflows from US-listed spot ETFs looks set to end, following net inflows of $442.67 million through Thursday.
• BTC’s scope for gains remains constrained as intensifying Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and worries about inflation and AI spending undermine risk appetite.

Pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) persists, with the cryptocurrency trading near $81,800 on Friday and showing modest losses for the week so far. Even as prices edged lower, a return of institutional interest appeared to be taking shape: spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted net inflows of $442.67 million through Thursday.

Caution nevertheless remains warranted for traders. Mounting tensions in the Middle East, climbing oil prices and unease over inflation and AI expenditure are weakening risk appetite and restricting the Crypto King’s rebound.

Is institutional demand beginning to return?

Evidence of firmer institutional interest in Bitcoin has emerged this week. According to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot ETFs reached $442.67 million through Thursday, putting the funds on course to end two consecutive weeks of outflows. A continuation and strengthening of those inflows on Friday could help BTC rebound.

A further development came on Thursday, when BIT Asset Management AG, BIT’s wholly owned Swiss asset management subsidiary, said the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) had approved the Bitcoin Fund ETF (BBIT).

FINMA confirmed that this is Switzerland’s first exchange-traded fund to invest directly in Bitcoin. It is also currently the only spot Bitcoin ETF in Europe. Trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange is expected to start in November. By widening institutional access to BTC, the launch could foster broader adoption and reinforce the Crypto King’s longer-term prospects.

Are inflation concerns restricting BTC's rebound?

With persistent Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $100 per barrel this week. The rise followed a gain of over 8% in the preceding week.

A sharp intensification of fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement has resulted in Houthi drone and missile attacks on the kingdom’s airports and critical energy facilities. 

Separately, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said fresh US attacks could lead Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and strike bases supporting US military operations under its new offensive strategy. This follows a report that the US and Israel have prepared plans for a brief but intensive military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections.

Together, these developments are sustaining the geopolitical risk premium and pushing oil prices higher. They have also fuelled concerns that inflation expectations could accelerate further, weakening appetite for risk and limiting BTC’s recovery.

Could rising unease over heavy AI spending affect Bitcoin’s price?

Liquidity appears to be shifting out of markets such as fixed income and cryptocurrencies as AI investment booms, Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, told FXStreet in an exclusive interview. Bitcoin has failed to match the stock market’s continued climb to record highs, reflecting the concentration of capital in AI-linked investments and technology shares.

Simon-Peter said doubts about the sustainability of AI expenditure had returned this week following a warning from IBM Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna. Despite the company delivering better-than-expected results, Krishna cautioned that corporate clients were increasingly asking whether substantial AI investments would produce tangible returns.

How these concerns evolve will determine the implications for Bitcoin, according to Massabni. Continued robust earnings and sustained AI investment by Big Tech companies could keep associated shares appealing, drawing liquidity away from cryptocurrencies and postponing BTC’s recovery. 

Such an outcome could prolong the prevailing stop-start trading pattern: traders enter to capture short-term profits, then withdraw as doubts over the recovery’s durability re-emerge. Spot Bitcoin funds illustrated this pattern, attracting $1 billion in positive inflows earlier this week before losing more than $600 million yesterday alone.

Conversely, greater anxiety over AI spending and growing investor doubts about returns on large technology investments could prompt an equity correction, channelling some capital towards Bitcoin. If that correction stays contained without causing a broader economic deterioration, renewed buying could emerge in Bitcoin, which is already trading nearly 35% below its all-time high. This could also help underpin a recovery across the wider cryptocurrency market.

A more severe, extreme outcome would involve the AI bubble bursting as major indices slump beyond bear-market territory. Results falling drastically short of investors’ optimistic expectations, alongside deteriorating Middle East geopolitics where further escalation could cause even larger oil-market shocks, could drive steep simultaneous losses in equities and cryptocurrencies. Even at those lower prices, taking on risk may appear unattractive given the sheer scale of the surrounding threats.

Massabni concluded: “Over the next few days, I expect Bitcoin to remain sideways, with the potential for further downside and a break below the $80,000 level, as the heavy focus on geopolitical factors amid the deteriorating situation in the Middle East may prevent Bitcoin from benefiting from capital rotation,”

Bitcoin technical outlook: Will modest weakness persist?

Following two successive weeks of correction, the Crypto King was trading near $81,800 on Friday, with modest losses recorded this week so far.

Further corrective pressure could take BTC towards $78,661, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. That level broadly aligns with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $76,126.

On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 56 and heading towards the neutral 50 mark, signalling easing bullish momentum. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive, its bars are shrinking. The broader upward momentum therefore remains intact but is fading in the face of nearby resistance and the continuing pullback.

A recovery, by contrast, could lift BTC towards the 50% retracement at $87,823, with the 100-week SMA at $89,570 the next level to watch.

The daily chart retains a constructive short-term bullish bias, with BTC trading above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $80,877, $77,528 and $76,185 respectively. Grouped beneath the spot price, these averages suggest that the uptrend has solid support. However, a daily RSI near 47 points to momentum easing towards neutral. A negative MACD histogram and a MACD reading below zero also indicate that the bullish tone remains fragile, rather than signalling a forceful breakout phase.

The horizontal barrier near $85,000 offers the first resistance on the upside, where earlier selling interest could restrain further gains.

Initial downside support lies around $80,877 at the 50-day EMA. Should corrective pressure persist, deeper structural support follows at the 100-day EMA of $77,528 and the 200-day EMA of $76,185.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)