Cardano Price Forecast: Can ADA sustain its recovery amid weak momentum?

• Following its failure to close above the 50-day EMA near $0.228 the previous day, Cardano remains below $0.222 on Thursday.
• ADA’s recovery remains constrained as derivatives metrics weaken.
• With technical signals pointing to waning momentum, a close beneath support at the 100-day EMA would suggest scope for a deeper correction.

Sentiment towards Cardano (ADA) remains under pressure from deteriorating derivatives metrics and waning bullish momentum. On Thursday, ADA trades below $0.222, having failed to hold gains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.228 the previous day. A breach of the 100-day EMA could lead to further losses.

Are weaker derivatives metrics limiting Cardano’s recovery?

Caution towards Cardano is evident in derivatives data. On Thursday, CoinGlass’ ADA long-to-short ratio stands at 0.79, close to its lowest reading in over a month. When the ratio is below one, it signals bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for a decline in asset prices.

Further evidence of a bearish outlook comes from Cardano’s funding rate, which turned negative on Wednesday. Thursday’s reading of -0.0025% indicates that short-position holders are paying those holding long positions.

Does on-chain data point to a bearish bias?

A bearish outlook for Cardano also emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders coincide with heating conditions in ADA’s futures markets, while selling dominates both spot and futures trading. Taken together, these signals point to a cautious, bearish bias among Cardano traders.

Cardano technical outlook: What do weakening momentum indicators suggest?

The near-term bias for Cardano remains tilted towards the downside, with Thursday’s price of $0.221 sitting beneath both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Although ADA is holding just above the 100-day EMA around $0.220, the breach of the rising support trendline near $0.210 suggests that the broader corrective phase is still under way.

This cautious assessment is supported by momentum readings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still negative. Together, they suggest that downward pressure is easing, but has not yet reversed.

Any advance would first encounter resistance at the 50-day EMA near $0.230. Beyond that lie a horizontal barrier around $0.236 and the 200-day EMA near $0.240, followed by stronger resistance towards $0.250 and then $0.300.

For declines, the 100-day EMA around $0.220 reinforces immediate support, followed by the former uptrend-line break area near $0.210. A sustained breach of that region would bring deeper support associated with the previous trendline into view, closer to $0.170.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)