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113.50 in View: AUD/JPY Price Forecast Points to Double-Bottom Upside
- Four-day AUD/JPY advance continues, with a double-bottom pattern pointing to further upside potential.
- 111.50 breakout would bring the 50-day SMA and resistance around 112.00 into focus.
- 113.40 double-bottom measured target could come into play if the breakout is confirmed.
AUD/JPY trades at 111.04, up 0.24%. Extending its strong advance into a fourth consecutive day, the cross has set a fresh monthly high above the 14 October daily peak of 111.13. Bullish momentum is building as key resistance levels approach.
111.50 Breakout in Focus: AUD/JPY Technical Price Forecast
A ‘double bottom’ pattern is evident in the price action. AUD/JPY looks poised to break above 111.50, a level just beneath the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 111.57.
If that break is decisive, the 200-day SMA at 111.76 would be the next level to watch, followed by 112.00 and the 100-day SMA at 112.12. Clearing these key resistance points would shift the bulls’ focus to the ‘double bottom’ measured objective: a 227 pips advance from around 111.13 to 113.40.
For sellers, the main hurdle is a fall below 110.00. Only then could AUD/JPY revisit the monthly low of 108.64 recorded on 15 October.
AUD/JPY: Daily Price Chart
Australian Dollar: Key Questions
Interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are among the strongest influences on the Australian Dollar (AUD). Australia’s resource-rich economy also makes the price of iron ore, its largest export, a key driver. Other influences include economic conditions in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, alongside domestic inflation, economic growth and the trade balance. Investor sentiment matters too: demand for riskier assets in a risk-on market supports AUD, while a risk-off market sees investors seek safe havens.
By setting the interest rate at which Australian banks lend to one another, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shapes borrowing rates across the economy and influences the Australian Dollar (AUD). Its primary aim is stable inflation of 2-3%, achieved through increases or reductions in interest rates. Rates that are relatively high compared with those of other major central banks support AUD; relatively low rates have the reverse effect. The RBA can also alter credit conditions through quantitative easing or tightening. Easing is negative for AUD, while tightening is positive.
As Australia’s largest trading partner, China has a substantial influence on the Australian Dollar (AUD). A strong Chinese economy buys more Australian raw materials, goods and services, increasing demand for AUD and lifting its value. When China’s growth falls short of expectations, the reverse occurs. Chinese growth figures that surprise either positively or negatively therefore often affect the Australian Dollar and its currency pairs directly.
According to 2021 data, iron ore accounts for $118 billion in annual Australian exports, making it the country’s largest export, with China the main destination. Its price can therefore influence the Australian Dollar. Rising iron ore prices generally lift aggregate demand for the currency and push AUD higher; falling prices have the reverse effect. Higher prices also increase the likelihood of an Australian trade surplus, providing further support for AUD.
Another influence on the Australian Dollar is the trade balance: export earnings minus import expenditure. Strong overseas demand for Australian exports can lift the currency because foreign buyers generate more demand for it than Australia’s purchases of imports generate in the opposite direction. A net trade surplus therefore strengthens AUD, while a trade deficit has the reverse effect.
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