Thursday brings Indian Rupee’s winning streak against US Dollar to a halt

• An almost seven-week high gives way to a pullback in the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar.
• INR is likely to retain support from stronger foreign inflows, new RBI measures and active intervention.
• October’s flash PMI releases from India and the US are next in focus for investors.

USD/INR rebounds towards 94.78. Strong buying emerged around the seven-week low of 97.33, leaving the Indian Rupee (INR) struggling to secure an eighth consecutive trading day of gains against the US Dollar (USD). Several supportive factors are nevertheless expected to continue underpinning the Indian currency.

INR outlook: factors supporting further gains

Repeated intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets is among the forces driving the Rupee’s rally. Other support comes from newly announced measures to restrain US Dollar demand and substantial foreign fund inflows for the Jio Platforms Initial Public Offering (IPO).

A “multi-layered defence strategy to support the rupee this year,” has been deployed by the Reserve Bank of India, DBS Group Research notes. It combines “outright intervention in spot/forwards, regulatory action, liquidity steps, administrative measures and moves to curb import-related dollar demand.” DBS says the authorities “are likely not done yet and remain ready to take further action, as required,” a stance reinforced by RBI Governor Malhotra in a recent Moneycontrol interview on 13 October. He emphasised the central bank’s commitment, stating that “The RBI is determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure orderly movement in the foreign exchange market.”

According to Groww, the ₹30,213 crore IPO of Reliance Industries-backed Jio Platforms opened on 21 October 2026 and will run until 23 October.

October flash PMIs: India and US releases in focus

Friday brings October’s preliminary private-sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for India and the US, with investors closely watching both releases.

 Another expansion in overall business activity, albeit at a moderate pace, is likely to be indicated by the US S&P Global PMI report.

95.43 resistance shapes USD/INR technical outlook

At 94.78 on the daily chart, USD/INR remains below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 95.43, leaving the near-term bias bearish. This average provides immediate dynamic resistance. As long as the pair stays beneath it, rallies are likely to encounter selling.

With a reading of 35.62, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to oversold territory. That suggests downside momentum is stretched, though a reversal has not yet been confirmed.

A daily close above the 20-day EMA, the first resistance around 95.43, would be required to relieve the current bearish pressure and allow a corrective rebound. On the downside, key support lies at the 25 June low of 94.15.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)