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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Can a Double Bottom Help Bulls Reach 113.50?
- Can AUD/JPY's four-day rally gain further ground as a double-bottom pattern points to bullish potential?
- Can a break above 111.50 bring the 50-day SMA and resistance around 112.00 into focus?
- Could confirmation of a breakout put the double-bottom measured target of 113.40 within reach?
Bullish momentum is taking AUD/JPY towards crucial resistance as the cross rallies for a fourth consecutive day. It has recorded a fresh monthly high above the 14 October daily peak of 111.13 and is trading at 111.04, a gain of 0.24%.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Can the technical setup support further gains?
With a ‘double bottom’ chart pattern now visible in the price action, AUD/JPY looks set to break above 111.50. That level sits just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 111.57.
If a decisive breakout materialises, the 200-day SMA at 111.76 would come into view, followed by 112.00 and then the 100-day SMA at 112.12. Clearing these important resistance levels would leave bulls targeting the ‘double bottom’ measured move of 227 pips, from around 111.13 to 113.40.
For sellers, the main downside hurdle is a fall below 110.00: AUD/JPY would need to breach that level before they could revisit the monthly low of 108.64 recorded on 15 October.
AUD/JPY Daily Price Chart – What does the setup show?
Australian Dollar: Frequently asked questions
Risk appetite is one influence on the Australian Dollar (AUD): demand for riskier assets, or risk-on sentiment, supports the currency, while a preference for safe havens represents risk-off sentiment. Among the most important drivers is the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia's abundant natural resources also make the price of iron ore, its largest export, a key consideration. Other influences include the economic health of China, Australia's biggest trading partner, alongside domestic inflation, economic growth and the trade balance.
By determining the interest rate at which Australian banks can lend to one another, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) affects borrowing rates across the economy and, in turn, the Australian Dollar (AUD). Its primary objective is stable inflation of 2-3%, pursued by raising or lowering interest rates. Rates that are relatively high compared with those set by other major central banks lend support to the AUD; relatively low rates have the reverse effect. Credit conditions can also be influenced through quantitative easing or tightening, with easing weighing on the AUD and tightening supporting it.
As Australia's largest trading partner, China has a substantial influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). A strong Chinese economy buys more Australian raw materials, goods and services, increasing demand for the AUD and lifting its value. When China's growth falls short of expectations, the reverse occurs. Consequently, Chinese growth figures that surprise on either the upside or the downside often directly affect the Australian Dollar and its currency pairs.
With China the main destination, iron ore is Australia's biggest export and accounts for $118 billion annually, according to 2021 data. This makes its price an important potential driver of the Australian Dollar. Rising iron ore prices generally lift overall demand for the currency, pushing the AUD higher; falling prices tend to have the reverse effect. Higher prices also increase the likelihood of Australia recording a trade surplus, which provides further support to the AUD.
Another influence on the Australian Dollar is the trade balance: the difference between a country's export earnings and its import payments. Strong foreign demand for Australian exports can lift the currency's value because buyers generate demand for the AUD in excess of what Australia spends on imports. A positive net trade balance therefore supports the AUD, whereas a negative balance has the reverse effect.
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