Bitcoin derivatives strengthen, but can the $87,000 sell wall be breached?

• Renewed positioning accompanied Bitcoin’s price recovery, with futures open interest climbing 4.2% to 645,410 BTC.
• Selling pressure could challenge BTC around $86,500 to $87,500, a resistance zone where sell orders coincide with major leveraged liquidation clusters.
• Selling pressure may emerge for Strategy if new rules effective from November 11 lead MSCI to remove the company from its indices.

Rising selling risk in the $86,500 to $87,500 zone threatened to cap Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery on Wednesday, even as derivatives positioning strengthened. Sell orders and leveraged liquidation clusters in that range could restrict further upside.

Is Bitcoin derivatives positioning strengthening again?

According to a Wednesday report from crypto exchange Bitfinex, buying on dips supported Bitcoin between $81,724 and $83,470, allowing it to hold the lower end of its range despite repeated attempts to push prices down.

By October 20, futures open interest on major exchanges had reached 645,410 BTC, up 4.2% from the October 12 low. The increase pointed to fresh positioning alongside the price recovery. During peak sessions, funding rates normalised to annualised levels of 7% to 9%, indicating a moderate preference for leveraged long positions.

A limited near-term trading range is also suggested by options positioning. According to Bitfinex, notional open interest for Friday’s expiry stands at $1.23 billion, while the maximum pain price is close to $82,000.

For the October 30 monthly expiry, notional open interest totals $11.2 billion. Its implied one-standard-deviation range extends from $78,300 to $87,100.

Can Bitcoin clear the liquidity clusters at $87K resistance?

Against the improving backdrop in Bitcoin derivatives, onchain analytics firm Glassnode flagged sell orders in the $86,500 to $87,500 range. It also identified liquidation clusters close to $85,000 and $87,000.

“A move toward $87K could gain speed as short positions are forced shut, but it would meet the asks on the order book at the same price,” Glassnode said in a report published on Wednesday.

Profit realisation had slowed to roughly half the pace recorded in the week of September’s market high, Glassnode noted. This suggested that holders sitting on profits were exerting less selling pressure.

Among investors who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago, selling has fallen below a third of the daily level seen in early October.

“A daily close above $86.7K would put the 6 to 12 month buyers back in profit on average and clear the nearest band of supply overhead,” the firm said.

Meanwhile, Monday brought a return to inflows for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which attracted $526 million. This was their biggest daily intake since September 22 and pushed weekly flows back into positive territory, though ETF trading volumes stayed subdued.

Glassnode added: “Inflows that repeat on rising volume would show demand broadening beyond a single day,”

Could MSCI’s decision lead to Strategy’s removal?

Also flagged in the report was MSCI’s forthcoming final list of companies affected by its new index rules for non-operating businesses. The list is scheduled for release on November 11.

A preliminary assessment had identified Strategy as one of the affected companies. Should it be removed, funds tracking the indices could be compelled to sell its shares.

Strategy has faced the prospect of removal from MSCI indices before. A proposal put forward by MSCI in October 2025 sought to exclude companies with digital asset holdings representing at least 50% of total assets, placing Strategy at risk. In January, however, the index provider stepped back from immediate exclusion.